What To Expect From Friday's Jobs Report

Key Takeaways

• A report coming Friday will likely show the U.S. economy added 50,000 jobs in February, according to the median forecast.
• A report in line with these expectations would reflect a slowdown from the unexpectedly high job growth in January, which was mainly driven by health care.
• The labor market slowed sharply last year as tariffs, the immigration crackdown, and artificial intelligence all took a toll on job creation.

The labor market likely maintained its recent pattern in February, with modest job growth alongside a low unemployment rate, in what economists have described as a “low-hire, low-fire” trend.

Friday’s report on the job market from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is likely to show U.S. employers added 50,000 jobs in February, a decline from the unexpectedly high 130,000 added in January, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.3%, the lowest level since August.

The data will indicate whether the job market is recovering from its slump last year, which was the slowest year for job creation since 2003 outside of a recession. Uncertainty about trade policy due to President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff campaign, the reduction in the number of foreign-born workers because of the immigration crackdown, and the introduction of AI all weighed on job creation last year, according to economists.

What This Means For The Economy

Job creation and the unemployment rate are two of the most widely-watched indicators of the health of the economy and could signal whether the U.S. is headed for more turbulence.

Forecasts vary wildly from economist to economist.

Some forecasters expect job creation to slow further than the median, since the January uptick was almost entirely due to an unlikely-to-be-repeated surge in the health care and education sectors. Economists at Deutsche Bank, for example, forecast growth of only 30,000 jobs.

If job growth comes in hotter than expected, that would suggest January’s jump in jobs was a genuine sign of improvement rather than just a fluke. Economists at Nomura forecast 85,000 jobs were added in February.

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“In our view, the labor market remains resilient,” David Sief, chief economist at Nomura, wrote in a commentary. “Signs of stress from late last year appear to be easing, and employment growth is gradually gaining momentum.”

Officials at the Federal Reserve have said they will seriously consider job market data as they decide whether to further reduce interest rates in the coming months. Policymakers at the central bank have been divided over whether to lower borrowing costs to reverse last year’s job slowdown and prevent a surge in unemployment, or to keep rates higher for longer to stamp out high inflation.

“We think job growth sharply decelerated in February, but the slowdown won’t change our assumption that labor market conditions have at least stabilized, allowing the Federal Reserve to hold policy steady as it assesses the economic impact of the Iran conflict,” wrote Oxford Economics’ Lead Economist Nancy Vanden Houten.

Update, March 5. 2026:_ This article has been updated to include a quote from Oxford Economics. It was originally published March 4, 2026._

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