Adobe Is About to Report Q1 Earnings. Here’s What Analysts Expect

Design software maker Adobe (ADBE) is scheduled to announce its results for the first quarter of Fiscal 2026 on March 12. ADBE stock has declined 19% so far this year amid concerns that generative artificial intelligence (AI) models could disrupt traditional software businesses. Ahead of Q1 FY26 earnings, Wall Street is divided on Adobe stock. While bulls are confident about the company’s ability to deliver continued growth and see AI as a catalyst, not a threat, other analysts are concerned about the impact of competition from AI.

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Wall Street expects Adobe to report Q1 FY26 earnings per share (EPS) of $5.87, reflecting 15.5% year-over-year growth. Revenue is projected to grow 10% to $6.28 billion. The company guided revenue in the range of $6.25 billion to $6.30 billion and adjusted EPS of $5.85 to $5.90.

Investors will look forward to management’s commentary on the adoption of Adobe’s AI offerings. The company is integrating its Firefly AI model into its key products. Also, customers have been upgrading to higher-tier subscriptions to capitalize on Adobe’s AI capabilities.

Analysts’ Views on Adobe Stock Ahead of Earnings

Heading into Q1 FY26 earnings, Piper Sandler analyst Billy Fitzsimmons reiterated a Hold rating on Adobe stock with a price target of $330. The analyst believes that expectations are largely de-risked heading into the Q1 print as the company has already provided its FY26 guidance. Fitzsimmons expects investors to focus on total annual recurring revenue (ARR) and AI-driven ARR metrics.

The analyst added that Adobe’s Q1 FY26 revenue could see upside, driven by stronger-than-expected AI product adoption and credit usage. However, Fitzsimmons expects ADBE stock to be under pressure over the near term, given “ADBE sits at the intersection of two of the categories least insulated from AI disruption, in our view: MarTech and design.”

Also, Citi analyst Tyler Radke reiterated a Hold rating on Adobe stock and lowered his price target to $315 from $387, citing multiple compression across the software sector. The analyst expects an “uneventful” earnings report, with limited upside estimate revisions.

Meanwhile, Barclays analyst Saket Kalia reaffirmed a Buy rating on ADBE stock but lowered his price target to $335 from $415. The 4-star analyst expects $460 million in Q1 net new ARR and expects the company to beat his estimate, given tiering contribution and growing generative credit usage.

Is ADBE a Good Stock to Buy?

Overall, the consensus rating on Adobe stock is a Moderate Buy based on 13 Buys, 12 Holds, and two Sell recommendations. The average ADBE stock price target of $415.44 indicates 46.5% upside potential.

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