Look at the USD to RMB exchange rate at 6.9688, and then check the current USDT market price at just 6.87—this 1.4% negative premium is no small matter.

Many people treat this as just price fluctuation, but in fact, this is capital speaking through actions. On the exchange, USDT is piling up, but the number of people actually taking fiat currency to buy is decreasing. It’s not that there aren’t enough counterparties, but that money is consciously withdrawing.

**Why is this happening? Three main reasons appear:**

**Capital is seeking an exit.** The volatility of BTC has been decreasing over the years, and expected returns are shrinking. From 2011 to 2013, it increased 800 times; from 2015 to 2017, 130 times; from 2019 to 2021, 20 times; and only from 2022 to 2025, about 8 times—this trajectory is very clear. When returns can no longer cover risks, people start to run away. Especially when some leading exchanges begin to hype up junk projects and regulations tighten, finding a fiat refuge becomes the top choice.

**Liquidity is clogged.** A negative premium of about 1% is still within arbitrage range, but if it breaks through to 3%, that’s a different story—meaning the liquidity structure is collapsing, and systemic panic is imminent. The deeper the discount, the more crowded the exit.

**Understand what’s really happening.** When prices rise and there’s a discount? That’s smart money loading into risk assets. But if during a decline there’s still a discount, especially one that’s deepening? That’s a collective stampede for the exits. These two scenarios are completely different.

**USDT’s discount is like an anomaly at the seaside—it doesn’t mean a wave is about to crash, but the directional signal is very clear.** The market never suddenly collapses overnight; it’s a gradual process. First, cracks appear in consensus, and the discount is the edge of that crack. Some are still dancing on the deck, but the truly sober are already grabbing their life jackets.

Looking at many stocks now, it’s easy to double your money over a few years. But the problem is—you can’t always buy at the bottom and sell at the top. Most people only get to ride the middle segment of the market. Instead of guessing luck, it’s better to listen to what the capital is saying.

**Where does the money come from? Where does it go? Can it come back?** That’s what true investors are watching. Don’t wait until the tide recedes to realize you’ve been standing in deep water all along. Understanding the attitude of capital is always more important than betting on the next move.