#美联储降息政策 Seeing this CPI report, my mind flashed back to the 2015 cycle. Back then, the signals were similar—inflation pressures easing, policymakers beginning to loosen the stance. I remember how many people argued "this time is different," but in the end, cycles are cycles.

Hassett now says the Federal Reserve has ample room to cut rates. I don’t doubt his data; I just recalled certain moments in history. Looking at the three-month moving average, inflation is indeed on the right track—this indicator can filter out noise. But what’s truly interesting is—whenever policy shifts, market reactions are never linear.

We saw a bold rate cut in 2020. What did that cycle produce? Massive liquidity influx, soaring asset prices, some projects skyrocketing from obscurity. After the peak in 2021, what followed? The crash in 2022 slapped everyone in the face.

The current environment has similarities, but the background is different—geopolitical tensions, fiscal policies, sticky inflation… these variables are all present. Ample room for rate cuts doesn’t mean they will definitely happen, let alone follow the market’s expected pace. What I see is that those who have experienced several cycles are waiting, observing—because we all know, the lag in policy shifts often marks the moment of wealth redistribution.

Finally, re-examining this report, the data is objective, but the story is still being written.