#Strategy加码BTC配置 From a few thousand to over $100,000: What I’ve learned about market expectations in 3 cycles

Recently, I heard someone say that BTC could reach $150,000 by 2026. Honestly, as someone who started messing around in 2017, I’ve heard so many predictions that they no longer move me; instead, I feel like pointing out the flaws.

The root cause is simple: what truly makes your wallet grow isn’t the “target price” institutions talk about, but whether you can keep up with the market’s storytelling rhythm.

These three things are more valuable than any prediction:

**First: See through the true intentions behind institutional calls**

When they loudly announce increased holdings, half of it is about managing market confidence, and the other half is actually about spending money. Don’t be fooled by rhetoric; the key is to observe where the funds are flowing and how long they keep doing so. Three months of hype won’t change much, but if they’re consistently buying for a whole year, that’s a signal. Short-term news is noise; long-term positions tell the real story.

**Second: Don’t fall into the trap of information asymmetry**

By the time a piece of news reaches your eyes, the K-line has already reflected it. When you see “big positive news,” rushing in to chase the rally often results in getting caught at the top. True competitive advantage isn’t about speed in acquiring information but about depth of understanding and accuracy in decision-making.

**Third: What is the most pragmatic approach right now**

· For those already holding positions: set a trailing stop-loss to let profits run while locking in risks.
· For those still on the sidelines: forget about one-time all-in; buy regularly monthly or weekly to average out costs.
· For everyone: only use money you can afford to lose, and diversify your assets.

I don’t play the guessing game of tops or bottoms; I only prepare sufficient contingency plans.

Which category do you belong to:
· The “HODLer” who buys and holds long-term, reply A
· The “trader” who prefers short-term swings, reply B
· The “newbie” who wants to understand this market from scratch, reply C

I will randomly select 3 commenters to share a condensed version of my 8 years of research on crypto market cycles.

Stay rational in conversations, don’t let volatility hijack your emotions.