Spot gold closed strongly on Friday, rising 1.3% to break through the $4,375 mark, marking an impressive start for 2026. There are three main forces driving this momentum.

First is the market’s new expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Traders are generally betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points this year, which directly pushed the US dollar index down to 98.17. Although this is only a 0.15% decline from the beginning of the year, it has inversely boosted the attractiveness of safe-haven assets. Second is the escalation of geopolitical tensions. Drone attacks have frequently occurred amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and tensions between the US and Venezuela continue to ferment. Such uncertainties often drive funds into gold.

Of course, there are some short-term pressures to watch out for. Exchanges raising margin requirements could suppress speculative buying, and technically, $4,430 remains a strong resistance level. Before the non-farm payroll data is released, some funds are also locking in profits.

From a technical perspective, if gold can break above $4,430, the next target points to the previous high of $4,549. Conversely, a pullback to the support level of $4,350 could present a good opportunity for low-entry positions. Next week’s non-farm employment data will set the tone for policy expectations, so stay alert.