BTC MVRV post-halving overlap curve may be the most accurate tool currently for judging the long-term cycle position.

Let's first look at the current data. BTC's actual MVRV stands at 1.58, corresponding to a price in the range of $88,000 to $90,000. According to Glassnode's "Three Lines in One" indicator, before January 23, the lowest possible MVRV could dip to 1.27, corresponding to a Bitcoin price of about $71,000. However, based on the comprehensive on-chain data and K-line indicators, the probability of actually reaching this lowest point is not particularly high.

Assuming BTC can smoothly pass through January 23, the next phase will change. Before February 16, there will be a rebound wave, with the MVRV expected to peak at 1.85, and the Bitcoin price could reach around $104,000.

The core of this logic still relies on on-chain data support. From the current market rhythm, short-term price fluctuations will revolve around these two key time windows. For those interested in a deeper understanding of crypto market cycles, such on-chain indicators are indeed worth spending time to study.