2026-01-03 05:22:55

The opening trend of the Hong Kong stock market often predicts the overall direction for the year. According to historical backtesting data from 1970 to 2025, this pattern is quite stable.

If the Hang Seng Index rises on the first day, the probability of an increase for the entire year is about 2/3, with an average annual gain between 10%-15%. Once the first day's gain exceeds 2%, this probability can increase to around 3/4, and the average annual return can jump to the 20-25% range.

Interestingly, the performance trend of the Hang Seng Index in the first month also reflects a similar pattern—basically equivalent to the result when the first day’s gain exceeds 2%. In other words, the Hong Kong stock allocation on the first day of the year has already roughly determined the year's overall trend. This has certain reference significance for market participants' mindset and strategic adjustments.

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ChainSpy

· 01-05 00:04

Tsk, is a good start so important? Feels like an overinterpretation... --- 2/3 probability? That means there's still a one-third chance of loss; the data looks good but still... --- Deciding the whole year on the first day? If so, I should have gone all-in on January 2nd last year, but unfortunately I didn't see this article... --- This logic feels a bit like a hindsight bias, but it's definitely worth paying attention to. --- So now we’re betting on the first day of the Hong Kong stock market New Year? Too risky, family. --- A 20-25% increase sounds good, but how many actually make money? --- Historical data is just that—history. Whether Hong Kong stocks can have a good start this year is the real key. --- Why hasn't anyone gotten rich from such a stable pattern? Feels like a trap. --- Honestly, it still comes down to fundamentals; technical patterns are unreliable. --- The probability of a good start is high, but there are still cases of big drops on the first day with a turnaround, so don’t be too absolute.

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HashBrownies

· 01-03 23:04

Setting the tone for the entire year on the first day of the new year? That logic sounds great, but is it really that simple? Looking at 70 years of data is impressive, but I'm worried it's just survivor bias... Wait, if the first day rises more than 2%, the probability jumps to 75%? It feels like this first move this year has already decided whether I'll make money or cry. But to be fair, Hong Kong stocks have indeed been prone to extreme movements in the first few days of the year, likely due to market sentiment release.

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RetroHodler91

· 01-03 05:53

Setting the tone for the whole year on the first day of the year? These numbers are too crazy, it feels like gambling.

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TopBuyerBottomSeller

· 01-03 05:52

It's the same set of the New Year opening theory again, sounds a bit mystical. --- 2/3 chance? I remember last year's New Year opening was completely useless. --- Predict the whole year with a 2% increase on the first day? Do I still need to look at financial reports? --- Just listen, don't take this as some golden rule. Hong Kong stocks are too unpredictable. --- Huh, this data has been backtested from 70 years ago until now. That must exclude many special cases. --- Come on, if it were really that effective, I would have achieved financial freedom long ago. --- The mindset on the first day of the new year is indeed important, but saying it determines the whole year is exaggerated.

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VCsSuckMyLiquidity

· 01-03 05:52

Can you lock in the full-year trend on the first day of the year? This logic is too absolute. If Hong Kong stocks were so easy to predict, no one would have lost money long ago.

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BlockchainFoodie

· 01-03 05:43

yo so you're telling me the first day of hang seng basically seasons the entire year's recipe... ngl that's giving major "proof-of-freshness" vibes, like the blockchain equivalent of checking your produce on day one and knowing exactly how your harvest will taste by december lmao actually this reminds me of smart contract recipes - one bad input at deploy and your whole meal's ruined fr fr

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StablecoinGuardian

· 01-03 05:41

Can the first day of the new year set the tone for the entire year? These data sound a bit too absolute... If it were really that accurate, everyone would just bet on the first day of the year. But on the other hand, from a psychological perspective, it's indeed interesting. A good start can easily boost investment enthusiasm for the whole year. Uncertainty still exists, and there will always be deviations between data backtesting and actual trends. How did the Hong Kong stock market perform at the start of the year? I haven't really paid attention to it.

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The opening trend of the Hong Kong stock market often predicts the overall direction for the year. According to historical backtesting data from 1970 to 2025, this pattern is quite stable.

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The opening trend of the Hong Kong stock market often predicts the overall direction for the year. According to historical backtesting data from 1970 to 2025, this pattern is quite stable.

Trending Topics

GateFun马勒戈币Surges1251.09%

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Your First Words Matter! Share your first post on and split $10,000 in New Year rewards. Post with #My2026FirstPost to share your New Year wish 2026U Position Voucher, Gate New Year boxes, F1 Red Bull merch await you! Ends on Jan 15, 2026, 16:00 UTC 2026 starts with this post!

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Share your first post on and split $10,000 in New Year rewards.
Post with #My2026FirstPost to share your New Year wish
2026U Position Voucher, Gate New Year boxes, F1 Red Bull merch await you!
Ends on Jan 15, 2026, 16:00 UTC
2026 starts with this post!