The melody of the market always repeats, but each time it sounds different.

Recently, Bitcoin has fallen from a high of $126,000 all the way down to below $90,000. This sharp correction has led many to ask: Is the bear market really here?

The four-year cycle theory has always been a "belief" within the community. The halving event is seen as a regulator of market rhythm, but when you really analyze the data, you'll find the story is far from that simple.

**What does history say?**

In 2012, during the first halving, the block reward dropped from 50 to 25 coins. Afterwards, Bitcoin surged from $4 to $1,200—an increase of 300 times. Then came a year of bear market correction, with prices halved by 84%.

In 2016, the second halving occurred. The reward changed from 25 to 12.5 coins. This time, Bitcoin skyrocketed from $200 to $20,000, a 100-fold increase, followed by an 83% decline.

In 2020, the third halving took place. The new reward of 6.25 coins was accompanied by a rise from $3,500 to $70,000—20 times growth. Unsurprisingly, it then fell by 79%.

The data is clear: after each halving cycle, there is celebration, followed by deep corrections. This time seems to be cycling through the same rhythm. But is it really that simple?

The current market structure and liquidity environment are vastly different from the past. Institutional entry, ETF products, and the booming derivatives market—all are changing the game rules. Traditional cycle prediction models may need recalibration.