#数字资产动态追踪 $PEPE $SHIB $DOGE

Tariff Relaxation, Tax Refund Frenzy—Is the US Economy Really Going to "Accelerate" in 2026?

As we enter 2026, the White House's approach has clearly shifted. The previous "high tariffs as a big stick" policy has begun to be fine-tuned, and the US has postponed plans to increase tariffs on furniture and cabinets. Wall Street analysts are sensing a different tone: rather than constantly wielding tariffs as a hammer, it’s better to use them as bargaining chips. First, threaten with high tariffs to scare off foreign investment and push them to invest in the US; then, at the right time, lower tariffs to give ordinary families, already strained by high prices, some breathing room. Even the Treasury Department is hinting that this tariff strategy is losing effectiveness.

But the real "big move" is still to come.

After the 2025 tax cuts, many Americans had their wages over-withheld last year. When tax season arrives next year, over 100 million taxpayers are expected to receive tax refund checks, with an average amount possibly reaching $3,278. Imagine—suddenly receiving over three thousand dollars—how would you spend it? J.P. Morgan economists have already given the answer: this is "Pandemic Money 2.0," directly fueling consumer desire and adding fuel to the already heated inflation. The Congressional Budget Office has even calculated that this wave of refunds alone could boost GDP growth in 2026 by 0.4 percentage points.

Optimistic voices are already imagining—2026 US economic growth of 3% to 3.5%, and the "Roaring 2020s" is about to arrive. But if you look closely, it’s all a trap.

First, unlimited fiscal stimulus will expand the federal deficit, increasing the pressure on national debt. If bond yields suddenly spike, the entire asset pricing system could tremble. Second, geopolitical tensions are becoming increasingly complex, with uncertainties in Europe and long-term tensions in the Middle East—any black swan event could overturn market expectations. Lastly, and most problematically—massive cash inflows into the economy—will inflation make a comeback? Will the Federal Reserve be forced to halt rate cuts or even turn to rate hikes?

In simple terms, the US economy in 2026 is walking a tightrope between "growth stimulation" and "risk explosion." The flexible use of tariffs combined with large-scale fiscal refunds—can they truly drive the economy upward, or will they only sow new hidden dangers? The answer to this question could directly influence the entire asset allocation logic for 2026.

What do you think about this economic experiment?