The legendary investor Rogers, who co-founded Quantum Fund with Soros and created a 4200% myth over ten years, recently issued a warning: the probability of a financial crisis in 2026 is extremely high. This is not alarmist. When he shorted the US real estate market in 2005, he was ridiculed by Wall Street, but three years later, the subprime storm made the world pay the price for that complacency. This time, he points to two deep-seated risks.

**Debt, the Time Bomb**

The global debt has reached a record high of $355 trillion. Specifically: US federal debt has surpassed $39 trillion, Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio has soared to 267%, and 37 low-income countries are already in debt distress. The global debt-to-GDP ratio is as high as 368%—what does this mean? It indicates that the total global economic output cannot even cover these debts within a year.

More painfully, the once-safe asset, US Treasuries, are now being sold off aggressively. The 10-year US Treasury yield has broken through 4.5%, and the traditional safe haven has been lost. When central banks and institutional investors start reducing holdings, how dangerous is this signal?

**How far has the AI Bubble inflated?**

The valuation of the AI sector has completely detached from reality. Some AI-related companies have price-to-earnings ratios soaring to 115, and price-to-book ratios exceeding 8. This is not investing; it’s gambling. History has shown that all疯狂脱离价值基本面的泡沫 eventually end in collapse.

**Hot Money Escape Routes**

When fiat currency confidence begins to falter, smart money votes with its feet. Bitcoin’s market capitalization has surpassed $2.1 trillion, becoming a ballast in the cryptocurrency field. Against this macro backdrop, the performance of different assets will diverge significantly. Risk assets will come under pressure, while assets with scarcity and safe-haven attributes may be revalued.