Recently, there have been quite a few developments in the precious metals market. Gold plummeted over $246 overnight, and domestic gold prices also dropped nearly 1800 yuan per ounce in response. Such a single-day decline is indeed rare in recent years. Meanwhile, there are rumors that a major American bank is facing a $2.3 billion margin shortfall due to large short positions on silver, with the risk of forced liquidation looming overhead.

This situation points to several underlying issues. First, the technical correction after several months of continuous rise in precious metals. Second, liquidity pressure caused by large short positions on the banking side. Third, the Federal Reserve has had to inject over $50 billion in liquidity twice in a row to stabilize the situation. In short, the market’s sense of "tension" has already emerged.

Even more worth pondering is the price gap between COMEX silver futures and physical silver in Shanghai and Dubai—this spread has hit a multi-decade high. This reflects a phenomenon: investor confidence in paper financial derivatives is waning, and more and more people are turning to physical delivery or cross-market arbitrage to hedge risks. This shift in mindset itself is a signal.

In the short term, it might just be a technical adjustment, but considering the tight liquidity and frequent regulatory interventions, there seems to be a slow accumulation of potential systemic risks. In the tug-of-war between traditional financial markets and physical asset pricing, volatility often precedes the truth. That’s also why recent crypto market performance is worth paying attention to—when cracks appear in traditional financial order, capital flows seeking alternative assets tend to change noticeably.

What’s your view on this round of adjustment? Is the Federal Reserve’s frequent interventions a risk prevention measure, or have the risks already been there all along?