2025-12-30 14:21:51

Honestly: I'm already tired of Trump's "big news"—this guy's previewing suspense more often than live-stream sales. But this time, the timing is perfect: progress in Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks, the US stock Christmas rally is booming, but Bitcoin is stuck at $87,000... The crypto market now feels like a warehouse full of dry tinder, any spark could ignite a fire.

Let me lay out a few possible scenarios—no beating around the bush.

**Geopolitical "Freeze" Plan**

The most likely is the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Trump just had a 75-minute call with Putin, reportedly planning to freeze the front lines using a "Korean Peninsula model," and using SWIFT sanctions as bargaining chips. If one day they suddenly announce an agreement between the US and Russia, it would short-term suppress safe-haven assets—gold would be hit hardest. But beware of a trap: Putin is always a fox, and if the deal has loopholes, the market could become even more panicked.

**Federal Reserve Policy "Uncertainty"**

Recently, Trump has been nonstop criticizing Powell for "raising rates too slowly," and the new Fed chair position is still uncertain. He might seize the opportunity to pressure, pushing for an immediate rate cut, or even install a "compliant" leader. If that happens, the dollar will continue to depreciate. But don’t expect Bitcoin to surge immediately—currently, institutions are pulling out of crypto ETFs, and gold and US stocks remain their safe havens.

**Tariff "Combination Punch"**

He’s really obsessed with tariffs, even hinting before about replacing income tax with tariffs. If he suddenly ramps up digital taxes on Europe or introduces new measures on Chinese goods, the global supply chain will shake again. From the crypto market’s perspective, this chaos might not be a bad thing—provided the policies are actually implemented.

BTC1.51%

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ImaginaryWhale

· 9h ago

Speaking of Trump, I've memorized this routine already. He's about to pull out another big move.

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DataPickledFish

· 9h ago

The analogy of the dry wood warehouse is excellent, but I bet Putin will play tricks again this time. Once the agreement is signed, it will become even more chaotic.

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RugpullTherapist

· 9h ago

Is it another suspense killer? I'm tired of Old T's move. I'm just waiting to see if Bitcoin can break free from the 87,000 magic number.

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ChainBrain

· 9h ago

Is Trump back to hype marketing? I'll be straightforward—right now, the market can be pierced by a single needle. Bitcoin at 87,000 is already tired of waiting. --- That old fox Putin isn't likely to let the agreement be so easily achieved. It might get even messier then. --- Interest rate cuts make people want to get on stage? Then the dollar can't help but continue to plunge, but don't expect BTC to skyrocket immediately. Institutions are already withdrawing ETFs. --- The tariff combo punch is back again. This guy is really addicted to tariffs; the supply chain will have to be disrupted again. --- Instead of waiting for big news, it's better to see how policies are truly implemented. Nice words don't count. --- Gold is the first to take a hit. The logic makes sense, but can the crypto market take the opportunity to surge? It's uncertain. --- A single spark in a dry warehouse could blow it up? That's funny. Currently, institutions are cashing out, and there's no way a spark will ignite.

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CryptoGoldmine

· 9h ago

From the growth curve of the computing power network, the point at 87,000 is indeed a buying opportunity at low levels. Once Trump's combination of policies is implemented, the dollar depreciation expectation will be reactivated, but the wave of institutional capital withdrawal doesn't seem to be over. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of Federal Reserve policy changes on the computing power return ratio. The analogy of a dry wood warehouse is good, but the actual deployment window still depends on how the SWIFT sanctions line develops. Mining data from the past three months shows that policy uncertainty can actually extend the investment return cycle, which is more rational. If tariffs really target Chinese goods this time, the resulting chaos in the global supply chain could instead push up energy costs, leaving significant room for difficulty adjustments in mining pools. Don't rely too much on the recent capital inflow into Bitcoin ETFs; the current logic is that only the improvements in computing efficiency brought by technological iteration can be a bottoming signal.

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