2025-12-30 13:26:02

Recently reviewed the Launchpad subscription data, and the failure rate of the passive holding strategy is approximately 73%. Overall, the expected value is negative. In simple terms, those who didn't sell in time back then are basically stuck.

Currently, there are three projects that haven't undergone TGE: Espresso, Billions, and Rise. I meet the subscription qualifications for all three, and I participated in the Launchpad for two of them.

Looking back to 2025, Launchpad was the biggest decision-making mistake for me. However, to be honest, I still have some expectations for projects like Billions to turn the situation around, as their subsequent performance will also influence the overall judgment of the sector. The Launchpad model itself requires more reflection.

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BlockchainGriller

· 7h ago

73% failure rate, that's outrageous... I also learned a painful lesson last year. Billions could be considered profit if they turn around, but the probability... The Launchpad model definitely needs to be re-evaluated. Waiting for TGE day, let's see if I can at least break even.

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RektRecorder

· 7h ago

73% failure rate... That's outrageous, no wonder so many people were calling for a cut in the group at that time. Can billions turn the tide? To be honest, I don't dare to bet on it anymore. The Launchpad gameplay really needs to be re-evaluated; relying solely on HODL won't keep us alive. Waiting for the TGE moment feels like gambling on probabilities. If I had known earlier, I would have just passed on these projects to save myself the trouble.

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EyeOfTheTokenStorm

· 7h ago

73% failure rate? As soon as this data came out, I knew there was a big problem. Quantitative models have long been calculated, and the passive holding logic of Launchpad is a false proposition from the very foundation. As for the three projects in Billions, honestly, it's still difficult to turn things around by the time TGE comes out; the historical data is right there. But it really depends on the subsequent technical developments, after all, this relates to the overall track judgment... Another IQ tax model? It seems that in 2025, we need to re-evaluate this gameplay.

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PanicSeller

· 7h ago

73% failure rate, this data is really shocking. Whenever I see launchpads now, I get overwhelmed. Where are the promised doubles? Instead, it's all scams. Billions hasn't had TGE yet, so I'm a bit anxious, but I still want to take a gamble on a reversal. It's time to thoroughly reflect on these lessons learned.

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InfraVibes

· 8h ago

73% failure rate, this data is a bit disappointing. It feels like Launchpad is just gambling. If it can't be sold before TGE, it's completely a loss, with no technical content. It would be great if billions can turn around, otherwise this year will be a waste again.

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