Recently, someone in the comments proposed a hypothesis: what if we exit a bull market next year? This is a question worth discussing.

To be honest, moving averages are just lagging indicators; their role is to confirm, not predict. Look at Bitcoin's current state—breaking below all moving averages. The clarity of this signal makes me very bearish.

So what if a bull run actually happens? What would I need to see? Very simple—price breaking back above all moving average resistance levels, forming a true bullish divergence, with all moving averages turning upward. At that moment, I would naturally turn bullish. But now? I don't even see signs of a bull, so why should I bet early?

A couple of days ago, there was news saying liquidity is coming, and the market should rise. The problem is, with such abundant liquidity, why is the market still like this? What does that indicate? It suggests that market sentiment might be off, or that the capital situation isn't so straightforward. Since ample liquidity isn't pushing prices up, I need to wait—wait until real volume is released and prices break through.

My trading logic is simple: follow the trend of the moving averages to determine the direction of the larger cycle. For short-term trades, I use MACD and short-term moving averages to do some swing trading. Most of the time, we make money from trends. No guessing, no pre-judging—the market will tell me everything.