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As 2025 is coming to an end, looking back at this year's Bitcoin market, many once-bold institutions are feeling a bit awkward.
By the end of the year, Bitcoin's trading price was about $88,000, down 6% from the beginning of the year. This report card is indeed a bit painful compared to the aggressive predictions made at the start of the year.
Let's see what these institutions said. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated in January that if major investors allocated to Bitcoin, the price could surge to $700,000 — but what happened? It didn't even reach half of that. Bernstein predicted it could break through $200,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026, but now that target seems too far away. Standard Chartered initially set a target of $200,000; by October, Bitcoin indeed hit a high of $126,000 for the year, but then it plummeted, and the bank ultimately had to cut its target to $100,000.
Bitwise repeatedly claimed that Bitcoin would break through $200,000 in 2025, but that didn't come true either. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee initially predicted it could reach $200,000–$250,000, but later revised his forecast to possibly surpass $100,000 again before the end of December — a significant adjustment. Even Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Investment Management, tempered her bullish forecast for Bitcoin in 2030 from $1.5 million down to $1.2 million.
Behind this collective forecasting failure, perhaps it reflects that the volatility of the crypto market still exceeds the expectations of many institutions.