The most frequent questions in the background are nothing more than these two: "Is this the eve of a bull market now?" "Should I buy the dip? Will it surge dramatically?" Every time I see these kinds of questions, I want to ask back—are you guys living by that crawling candlestick chart every day?

In fact, judging a bull market has never been about looking at single-day gains. Those "atypical signals" behind the data are what truly determine the wealth trajectory. Today, I’ll break down this filtering logic. Those who understand are already quietly positioning themselves.

**First, the easiest trap to fall into:** Don’t be fooled by the phrase "breaking through XX points means a bull market." When Bitcoin broke 28,000 in March last year, many big influencers shouted that the bull market was coming. But within a week, it dropped back to 24,000. You know how badly those who chased the high got trapped. The true start of a bull market isn’t a single breakout point; it’s the result of multiple dimensions resonating simultaneously. I only look at 5 signals, and I don’t act unless all are present.

**Signal 1: Grayscale Trust premium shifts from negative to positive and remains stable for over 1 week**

This reflects institutional enthusiasm for Bitcoin. During a bear market, Grayscale Trust is often trading at a discount—that is, institutions prefer to sell at a loss rather than hold. Once the premium turns positive and stays above zero for more than a week, it indicates institutions are actively buying. This signal is far more reliable than retail market hype. After the premium reversed in November last year, Bitcoin surged from 30,000 straight to 45,000—an obvious example.

**Signal 2: Total network hash rate continues to rise for 3 consecutive weeks**

Hash rate represents the security level of the Bitcoin network and miners’ confidence. Miners are much more rational than retail investors—they invest real money to run their mining operations. When the total hash rate increases for three weeks in a row, it shows major miners believe the future profitability is good and are expanding their capacity. This is a genuine vote of confidence from institutional-level players, more truthful than any words.

**Signal 3: Activation of large on-chain wallets with transfer amounts in the top 80 percentile of history**

When dormant large wallets suddenly become active and transfer, it indicates major holders are rebalancing their positions. If these transfers are at high levels historically, it suggests smart money within the market is reallocating chips. This is often a precursor to a big move.

**Signal 4: Long-term futures contract premium shifts from positive to negative or stays low**

High futures premium indicates excessive market optimism and potential pullback. When the premium turns downward or stays close to spot prices, it shows greed in the futures market has been released, and real demand is taking over the price.

**Signal 5: Market liquidity is sufficient, with daily trading volume maintaining over 150% of the quarterly average**

Trading volume is the foundation of price. A healthy rally must be supported by ample transaction volume; otherwise, it’s just a false rise.

When these five signals appear together, I will truly consider entering. They may seem complex, but the core logic is simple: **use data, not emotions, to judge the trend**. Accounts burned by emotion are mostly stuck at this step.