#数字资产市场动态 Once again... I saw an account lose 1.18 million due to a "financial trap," and at that moment I was truly broken—it's not that I think scammers are so clever, but this kind of scheme appears in my on-chain data tracking hundreds of times a year.

**Why do some people keep falling into the trap? News always lags behind the chain**

That kind of "high returns, immediate withdrawal" trick usually appears during market FOMO madness. Recently, USDT new issuance has slowed down, but the balances on exchanges are actually piling up—what does this mean? Retail investors are repeatedly buying into various "get rich quick" stories, while the real big players are lurking in the corners, waiting for the right moment to sell.

**On-chain data doesn't lie, but many people can't read it**

Bitcoin's exchange net flow has been negative for three days straight, with whale wallets unmoved. But then I look at Ethereum, and suddenly Gas fees spike—turns out a few altcoins are pumping hard—this is a typical "retail crowd gathering signal," and I can predict the subsequent trend with my eyes closed.

Also, the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) is at a low level, indicating a strong market wait-and-see sentiment, which doesn't match the true bull market performance.

**What I want to say honestly**

Any sudden surge is basically just existing funds creating trading liquidity, with the goal of hooking those who are blinded by "790,000 profit on paper." I’ve been emphasizing all year not to trust anything like "capital preservation and guaranteed profit" or "exclusive channels." Now, on-chain data proves my judgment: the more retail enthusiasm rises, the closer the crisis is.

In my opinion, the market never lacks stories; what it lacks is patience. If you really want to trade, check out Bitcoin's MVRV index and the flow of withdrawals from exchanges—that data is more straightforward than any analysis. Here's a harsh truth for everyone: old hands die chasing highs, newbies die bottom-fishing. At this position, instead of greedily taking more, it's better to stay safe and alive—don't become someone else's "bag holder."

$ETH