Bitcoin Battles the $90,000 Level: Market Play After Gold and Silver Pull Back from Highs

Based on the latest data provided by users, as of December 30th, Bitcoin’s current price is $87,985.5, with a 24-hour increase of only +0.01%, continuing to fluctuate narrowly below the key psychological level of $90,000. On the same day, the international precious metals market attempted to stabilize after a sharp sell-off the previous day. Spot gold rebounded to around $4,365, while spot silver surged nearly 3% to above $74.29.

Market Overview: The Tug-of-War at the Key Level

At the end of the year, the cryptocurrency market’s focus is entirely on the $90,000 level. According to Gate data, Bitcoin is currently hovering between $87,800 and $88,000. The market has not lacked attempts to break through. On Monday (December 29), Bitcoin briefly surged past $90,000, but momentum quickly faded, and it closed down about 0.4%. This “sharp volatility and lack of trend” is attributed by analysts to the light trading activity during the year-end holiday period. In a low-liquidity environment, fluctuations near key integer levels tend to be amplified.

In contrast to Bitcoin’s tug-of-war, the precious metals market experienced a dramatic “rollercoaster.” The previous day, COMEX gold futures plummeted 4.45%, and silver futures fell even more sharply by 7.2%, sparking widespread speculation about capital flows.

Behind the Volatility: Liquidity, Structure, and Expectations

Bitcoin repeatedly failing to break the $90,000 mark is driven by multiple technical and structural factors. First, global market liquidity tends to thin out at year-end, affecting price sustainability. More critically, changes in derivatives market structure are at play. QCP Capital analysts note that after a record-breaking options expiry in December, open interest sharply declined by nearly 50%, indicating many traders are choosing to stay on the sidelines. Post-expiry, market makers have shifted to a “short Gamma” stance on the upside. This structural change means that if prices rise, market makers may be forced to buy spot to hedge risks, temporarily amplifying upward momentum and creating positive feedback.

Macroeconomic expectations are also adjusting. The market is reassessing the Fed’s rate cut path for 2026 and views today’s Fed meeting minutes as an important clue. Amid uncertainty, capital flows are diverging.

Asset Rotation: The Narrative Race Between Bitcoin and Precious Metals

Asset performance in 2025 shows a stark contrast. So far, silver has gained about 150% this year, gold has risen approximately 60%, while Bitcoin has declined. This divergence challenges the narrative of “Bitcoin as digital gold.” Capital preferences between traditional safe-haven assets and emerging digital assets show high “volatility.”

However, the upward momentum in precious metals faced resistance at year-end. After reaching all-time highs, gold and silver experienced significant technical corrections. Domestic jewelry prices have fallen from highs above 1,400 yuan/gram. Analysts believe that after a substantial rally, gold has entered a phase of “price expectation digestion and structural confirmation.” The market has already priced in some easing expectations, and new macro variables are needed to guide the next move.

Institutional Movements: Underlying Currents in Divergence

Despite price fluctuations, institutional activity reveals the market’s complex underlying tone. Listed companies continue to deploy against the trend. MicroStrategy, between December 22 and 28, bought an additional 1,229 Bitcoin at an average price of $88,568, increasing its total holdings to 672,497 BTC. Correspondingly, capital flow data shows cautious sentiment. Last week, digital asset investment products experienced net outflows, with Bitcoin-related products losing $443 million.

Within the market, a divergence is also evident: retail investors have added approximately $2.4 billion in leverage positions in December, while large Bitcoin whales have reduced holdings by about 20,000 BTC.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is at a critical crossroads. Analysts see $84,000 as a key support level in the near term. If this level is broken, deeper corrections could open, targeting the $72,000 to $68,000 range.

On the upside, resistance levels are significant. To regain upward momentum, bulls need to break through the recent resistance at $91,400. Even more crucial is the $94,000 level; if the weekly close is above this, it could open the way toward testing $101,000 and even $108,000.

Some long-term bulls, like former Barclays Managing Director John Glover, view the current phase as a correction. He is considering gradually increasing positions within the $71,000 to $84,000 range and expects that after the correction ends, a rebound to $145,000–$160,000 could occur in 2026 or 2027.

Future Outlook: Divergence and Consensus in 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, market participants’ expectations vary widely. The bullish camp remains optimistic. Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin could break $500,000 around 2030; Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood even projects an optimistic target of $1.2 million. Conversely, bearish voices are also strong. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone presents a starkly different scenario, warning of a significant risk of a sharp decline within the next year, potentially falling back to $10,000.

A macro backdrop not to be ignored is the fierce competition among asset classes globally. The rapid rise of the AI industry has diverted substantial risk capital from crypto. As an asset class, cryptocurrencies must continually prove their unique value proposition.

Market Structure: Centralization and Liquidity Depth

Today’s crypto market exhibits high levels of centralization. According to Gate research, about 75% of trading pairs are concentrated on a few major exchanges. While this structure provides high liquidity, it also introduces systemic risks. The flash crash at a certain exchange in 2025—where Bitcoin’s price suddenly dropped from $126,000 to $24,000—exemplifies this fragility. It warns that in highly concentrated liquidity pools, chain reactions of liquidations can trigger violent swings.

The foundational assets are also becoming more solid. Bitcoin and Ethereum together account for 60% of the total crypto market cap, indicating a trend toward convergence on proven, network-effect-rich core assets. Meanwhile, stablecoins (like USDT, USDC) have become essential infrastructure, with enormous daily trading volumes fueling market activity.

Bitcoin’s price at $87,985.5 remains nearly static, with a 0.01% intraday increase, paralleling the dramatic corrections from historical highs seen in gold and silver. Institutions like MicroStrategy continue to accumulate confidently at an average price of $88,568.

In the total crypto market cap, 60% is held by Bitcoin and Ethereum, with about 75% of trading pairs concentrated on a few major platforms. Under this highly centralized liquidity structure, the market awaits a new, decisive macro or technical signal to end the prolonged tug-of-war around the $90,000 level.