2025-12-30 10:28:43

Recently, a well-known financial analyst publicly predicted that Bitcoin will drop to $10,000 by 2026. Seeing this argument, I have to say— we've heard this kind of rhetoric too many times before.

Looking at this institution's predictions for Bitcoin over the years, it’s truly a living history of "face-slapping."

In 2018, when Bitcoin was approaching $10,000, they confidently claimed it would fall to $1,500. What happened? Bitcoin dropped to $3,200, which was more than double their prediction. In 2021, it was even more outrageous—they predicted it would break $400,000, but ultimately Bitcoin only reached $69,000. Their hit rate is really hard to believe.

So the question is, why do their predictions always fall flat?

This time’s logic is very familiar— they think Bitcoin faces thousands of competitors, like silver, platinum, palladium, and other traditional precious metals vying for market share. But they overlook a fundamental fact: Bitcoin is not a substitute for these assets. It has network effects, decentralization, and scarcity—these unique qualities cannot be replicated by traditional assets. No matter how many other cryptocurrencies there are, they cannot change Bitcoin’s status as "digital gold."

Instead, what’s more worth our attention is another question— if gold continues to rise, will the US stock market and Bitcoin follow suit? That’s definitely worth pondering. But compared to baseless bearish predictions, I am more inclined to believe that Bitcoin has enough resilience to stand firm in the new market environment. Its growth potential and hedging properties won’t disappear after one or two corrections.

To put it simply, the crypto market ecosystem is far more complex than these single predictions. Bitcoin has already proven it can maintain vitality amid global economic fluctuations. One prediction cannot change this big trend.

BTC1.08%

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BrokenRugs

· 9h ago

Here we go again with this set? Their prediction hit rate is even worse than me randomly buying lottery tickets. --- Honestly, the predictions in 2021 made me laugh to death; they were way off. --- I just can't understand how these institutions keep missing the mark. Their understanding of Bitcoin is really... --- The logic of precious metals is outdated; it's not even the same thing at all. --- What would happen if gold rises compared to Bitcoin? That’s a storyline worth watching. --- Face-slapping history haha, every time they make a new prediction as if they’ve never suffered losses. --- Network effects are something traditional assets really can't replicate; that's the core difference. --- Instead of listening to their bearish talk, it’s better to look at the historical record. Can they speak coherently? --- Having resilience means being able to withstand cycles. Bitcoin has proven this point. --- There are many competitors, but none can threaten Bitcoin’s position; the landscape is different.

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ImpermanentPhilosopher

· 10h ago

Here we go again, has this institution ever been accurate in their predictions? --- The history of face-slapping is so impressive; they've never been right about predictions haha --- What makes them compare precious metals to Bitcoin? It's not even the same thing at all --- Looking at their track record, I just laugh; it's truly outrageous --- $10,000 in January 2026? Uh... let's wait and see if they get proven wrong --- They always talk down about the market like this, and every time they get slapped in the face, can't they learn? --- They totally don't understand the network effect --- If their predictions were accurate, they wouldn't need to jump out every day to create topics --- Honestly, the correlation between gold and US stocks is much more reliable than these predictions --- With such a poor hit rate, they still have the nerve to speak; it's outrageous

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screenshot_gains

· 10h ago

This institution's prediction hit rate is really amazing, even outperforming reverse indicators haha --- Another bearish argument? Wake up, they’ve been using this approach since 2018, and they’re still talking about it --- Laughing to death, silver and platinum are here to compete for a livelihood? Bitcoin is fundamentally from a different dimension, okay --- Instead of listening to these so-called experts babble, why not look at what on-chain data says --- 1 million in 2026? I bet five bucks this guy will be proven wrong again --- The idea of gold rising and BTC adjusting isn’t bad, but their logic is still too linear --- It’s always like this, a group of people using old maps to find a new world, resilience, everyone --- They will never understand network effects, it’s really a ceiling for their thinking --- The record of predicting a fall in Bitcoin, this is probably the best reverse indicator haha

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ChainDoctor

· 10h ago

Here we go again. This institution is really a prediction expert, always proving itself wrong. Those who constantly bearish Bitcoin, their prediction records are just a joke. In 2018, they said it would drop to 1500, but they were proven wrong. Now they predict $10,000 in January 2026? I don’t believe a word of it. Bitcoin doesn’t compete with precious metals; it belongs to a different track. Comparing them directly is like comparing gold to the internet—ridiculous. Instead of listening to these institutions' empty predictions, it’s better to watch how the market itself moves. Bitcoin surviving all these years shows it has resilience. What really matters is the trend of gold and the US stock market, not some analyst’s bearish tone again this year. Predictions are just predictions; they can’t change the long-term trend. Anyway, I don’t believe them.

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GhostChainLoyalist

· 11h ago

This institution's predictive ability is truly outstanding; even reverse operations make money. They always criticize at critical points, but the speed of being proven wrong is faster than the rise of the coin price... Honestly, traditional financial logic doesn't apply to Bitcoin at all; it's like talking to a wall. Instead of listening to these analysts' nonsense, it's better to look at what on-chain data says. Crash to 10,000 in 2026? Fine, I'll just pretend you never said that and continue HODLing. Network effects—these people will never understand them. History will continue to repeat itself, these predictions will keep getting proven wrong, in a cycle. Bitcoin's resilience has long been evident; there's no need for anyone to prove it.

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HashRateHermit

· 11h ago

Back at it again? This institution's predictions are like a joke; their record of calling out actually could fill a book. How come these analysts always use contrarian indicators? The more accurate their predictions, the more it crashes—it's truly incredible. Bitcoin has gone through several bull and bear cycles here, yet it remains steady. These little pessimistic forecasts are really not enough to shake it. Predictors love to compare with traditional metals, but they’re really two different things, okay? They don’t understand network effects at all. When gold rises, US stocks tend to move too; Bitcoin also tends to shake. That’s a real issue, but it doesn’t prevent it from trending upward in the long run. Believe it or not, I don’t buy this $10,000 prediction this time—too old of a trick. The key is, they’ll never understand what decentralization really is. Using traditional thinking to analyze crypto is doomed to fail. Let’s see in 2026; probably another year of contrarian predictions.

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