Recently, keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve's movements requires paying attention to several key time points. This week, the Federal Reserve is about to release the minutes of the December policy meeting, and the market is waiting to see—these minutes are likely to reveal those "significant disagreements" among policymakers regarding the future policy direction.

According to the previously published dot plot, the Fed may cut interest rates only once next year. Sounds like not much, right? Indeed, because there are significant differences in internal opinions— a very small number of officials want to cut rates sharply and quickly, but many others are firmly opposed to rate cuts. This inconsistency in itself is quite interesting.

Another major development: Trump has revealed that he might announce the new Federal Reserve Chairperson in the first week of 2026. Who will be the next Chair? The market has already been speculating. Former Fed Director Kevin Woehner has been named as the top candidate by Trump. Additionally, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and Federal Reserve Board Member Christopher Waller are also widely considered to have a good chance of being nominated.

However, regardless of who takes office, the general consensus outside is—after the new Chair takes over, the Fed will conduct multiple rate cuts combined with "balance sheet expansion" operations to maintain liquidity in the financial markets, while also providing a backstop for U.S. Treasury bond issuance. Especially under the pressure of rising yields on ten-year and longer-term U.S. Treasuries, this policy combination has become an inevitable choice. This will have a significant impact on market liquidity expectations.