I recently saw a lot of newcomers in the community asking the same questions: "I heard the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates, should I sell all my coins?" "If they raise interest rates, is the crypto market doomed?" I truly understand this kind of anxiety, but I have to be honest—based on my experience with multiple interest rate hike cycles, this kind of thinking is actually overblown.

Indeed, Fed rate hikes can cause short-term pressure on the market, but it’s far from being the "end of the world." On the contrary, if you know how to look, each rate hike cycle presents opportunities. Today, I want to share the real insights I’ve summarized over the years.

**The Real Impact of Rate Hikes on the Crypto Market**

Many people see rate hikes as an absolute bad news, but this perspective is somewhat one-sided. In the short term, rate hikes do lead to capital outflows and increased market volatility; but from another angle, rate hikes are essentially measures by central banks to control inflation and stabilize the economy. When the economy is stable, it’s a long-term positive for all assets—including cryptocurrencies. History also shows that after each rate hike cycle ends, the market tends to rebound. That’s an opportunity.

**First Opportunity: Early Positioning at the End of a Rate Hike Cycle**

The Fed’s rate hike cycle usually lasts 1-2 years. When it’s nearing the end, smart money begins to anticipate "rate hikes are ending," and capital starts flowing back into the crypto market, causing an early rebound. For example, after the 2018 rate hike cycle ended, the crypto market experienced a small bull run in 2019; more recently, in late 2023, during the end of a rate hike cycle, mainstream coins rebounded over 50% from their lows. Newcomers should aim to build positions during this window, rather than waiting for the market to turn good before entering.

**Second Opportunity: Divergence Between Commodities and the US Dollar Index**

During rate hike cycles, the US dollar tends to strengthen, but commodities and crypto assets often experience pullbacks. This is actually a good time to accumulate. When the Fed begins considering rate cuts, this divergence reverses—dollar weakens, and crypto assets regain attractiveness. Experienced investors gradually increase their positions during this period.

**Third Opportunity: The Resilience of Leading Coins**

In rate hike cycles, the market naturally concentrates on leading coins. Smaller tokens may be wiped out, but mainstream coins’ declines are usually manageable. During this time, adjusting your portfolio to increase the proportion of leading coins can help you weather the volatility and prepare for subsequent rebounds.

In short, rate hikes are not meant to destroy the crypto market; they are part of the market cycle. The real danger isn’t the rate hikes themselves, but being unprepared when they come.