#预测市场 Seeing this analysis of prediction markets, my first reaction is: can we still trust real market prices?

This question is more severe than it appears. Although the scenarios depicted in the article are hypothetical, there are precedents in history—such as the 1916 betting market manipulation and the abnormal fluctuations on InTrade in 2012—that have actually occurred. What worries me most is that even if the manipulation ultimately fails, the panic of being "manipulated" itself can already tear apart people's trust in the market and information.

However, I also notice a key reminder: manipulating markets is actually much more difficult than it looks. Truly active, highly liquid markets have strong self-correcting abilities—arbitrageurs will quickly eliminate distortions, and prices will return to rationality. The problem lies in markets with low liquidity—those sparse trading corners are the real weak points.

This gives me the insight that—whether in investing or decision-making—one should not rely too heavily on a single signal. Combining prediction markets, polls, and fundamental information can help us better understand the truth. At the same time, we should remain cautious: when prices suddenly move sharply without a reasonable explanation, it might be worth asking more: "What is behind this?"

Choosing more transparent and in-depth information sources is always the best defense against noise and manipulation.