#预测市场 Prediction markets are truly one of the most fascinating applications of Web3! The market on Kalshi for "Best AI by the end of 2025" has already surged to $14.08 million in trading volume. This not only reflects genuine financial votes from market participants but also demonstrates the powerful vitality of decentralized prediction mechanisms.

Interestingly, Gemini's probability of winning was only 30% at the beginning of the year, and now it has soared to 86%—this is the charm of prediction markets, where information continuously flows, collides, and is priced in the market. Every trade represents participants' judgments about the future, and this process itself keeps uncovering true market expectations.

For me, this goes far beyond simply asking "whose AI is the strongest." Prediction markets are prompting us to rethink how decisions are made and how information flows—without intermediaries, transparent, and incentive-compatible. From sports events to political elections, and even to AI development directions, prediction markets are using economic power to replace traditional opinion polls.

This is one of the ultimate imaginations of decentralized finance: turning everyone's foresight into tradable assets, allowing the most accurate voices to receive the best rewards. In the long run, these kinds of applications will fundamentally change how we make decisions.