#预测市场 Seeing the data trend of Kalshi's prediction market is quite interesting. Gemini surged from 30% at the beginning of the year to 86%, while ChatGPT dropped from 41% to 8%—this contrast indicates that the market is re-pricing the AI landscape. The trading volume of $14.08 million is also significant, enough to prove that real money is betting on this market.

The key insight this case gave me is that prediction markets are essentially information games, where participants vote with real funds, making them more honest than public opinion or reviews. When it comes to choosing copy traders, the principle is the same—it's not about who boasts the loudest, but whose account curve is speaking.

The LM Arena leaderboard, used as the settlement basis, is set up cleanly without any ambiguity. Conversely, copy trading should also be filtered this way—select traders with clear strategies, decisive stop-loss execution, and controllable drawdowns. Don't be blinded by short-term high profits; often, those who appear steady with long-term returns are the signals worth heavily following.

Market sentiment can change, but data doesn't lie.