This week, the crypto market faces a triple test. The combined effects of Federal Reserve policies, the employment market, and the US stock market holiday will be key variables influencing the short-term rhythm of BTC and ETH.

First, let's look at Tuesday's FOMC meeting minutes. There is some significant divergence within the Federal Reserve—dovish officials are concerned about rising unemployment rates and advocate for continued rate cuts to avoid a recession; hawkish members focus on persistent inflation and oppose excessive easing; moderates are choosing to observe. How this minutes are worded will directly impact market expectations for the pace of rate cuts. If hawkish voices dominate, risk assets may be suppressed; conversely, a dovish tilt could boost BTC and ETH rebounds, with volatility also soaring.

On Wednesday, we look at initial jobless claims. This data is a barometer of the labor market. Claims below 220,000 are generally considered a sign of strong employment, potentially reinforcing hawkish stances; claims above 230,000 suggest economic weakness, increasing expectations for rate cuts, which is positive for crypto assets; figures in between tend to lead to narrow-range fluctuations. However, it’s important to note that this data can be quite noisy in the short term, and only a clear trend change can have a lasting market impact.

Thursday’s US stock market holiday is a special timing point. Large institutional funds withdraw, and while the crypto market continues 24/7, trading volume remains light, and implied volatility declines, making BTC and ETH prone to sideways movement. The risk is that sudden fund flows can create gap volatility, and slippage risks also increase. This period is suitable for observation or building low-leverage hedging positions.

Overall, the key this week is the degree of resonance between policy signals and data. Investors should be alert to liquidation risks driven by events, but also not miss out on trend opportunities once the direction becomes clear.