The market's real concerns are not "these"

1️⃣ Quantum Computing ≠ Short-term Threat to Bitcoin
This is a seriously overestimated source of panic
Quantum computing has indeed been frequently mentioned to scare people in recent years, but if it truly possesses practical destructive power in the short term,
the first to be destroyed wouldn't be BTC, but:

Bank encryption systems

Clearing systems

National-level financial infrastructure

The reality is:
👉 BlackRock, Fidelity, and top Wall Street institutions are precisely the ones at the forefront of technology
👉 They haven't withdrawn; instead, they are heavily invested in the BTC ecosystem
If quantum computing is a near-term risk, these institutions don't need to get on board.
🔻 What is truly more concerning is:

Mining electricity costs & overall expenses continuously rising

BTC trading sideways or even declining for a long time

Rapid depreciation of mining hardware value

This is already happening, not just a hypothetical.

2️⃣ The Fed's "Unexpected Rate Hike"? Very unlikely
But the real risk lies elsewhere

First half of the year: Powell holds back

Second half of the year: Trump holds back

In the current political cycle, raising interest rates is almost the least popular choice.
Unless inflation spirals out of control again, the likelihood is low.
But what we should really be cautious about is another scenario:

Even if the chairperson changes, the Federal Reserve still maintains a conservative path of "only two rate cuts throughout the year"

What does this mean for the market?

Liquidity expectations are repeatedly revised

Risk assets cannot form a one-sided trend

BTC is more likely to be stuck in high-level oscillations and consumption

This is more torturous than a "sudden rate hike."

3️⃣ Midterm elections ≠ Reversal of crypto policies
The real uncertainty comes from Trump himself
Even if the Democrats take the House of Representatives, it doesn't mean "anti-crypto":

Stablecoin legislation is bipartisan

SEC / CFTC structural reforms are also consensus

Anti-crypto sentiments are more from the old bureaucratic system rather than the political parties themselves

What we should be more cautious about is:

Trump's unpredictable behavior after losing the House

Policy sentiment, diplomacy, and financial regulation pace could become more extreme.

4️⃣ Clarity Act stall ≠ Exit of institutions
The real variable is "taxes"
Clarity (Market Structure Act) itself is not the biggest risk:

The House has passed it

Senate resistance mainly comes from "bank interests protection"

Circle obtaining OCC-like licenses essentially means: compliance first, then legislation

The risk that is easier to overlook is:
👉 Tax-related legislation
👉 Especially parts involving crypto asset declaration, clearing, and retroactive measures
Once implemented,
It will force some investors to sell coins passively to pay taxes.

5️⃣ USDT De-pegging?
This is a narrative that has already been "repeatedly disproved" by the market
No need to elaborate.
If Tether were to have issues, it would have happened long before today, given its size and status.

6️⃣ DeFi Black Swan ≠ RWA Systemic Risk
But exchange risks are rising

Even if DeFi protocols encounter issues, the impact is highly localized

Currently, the so-called RWA (Real-World Assets) are small in scale and shallow in structure

Far from "systemic risk"

What we should really worry about is:
Will there be:
👉 Major exchange failures in 2026

or massive thefts

reaching a level where "full compensation of user assets" is impossible

Once such events occur, the shock will far surpass DeFi vulnerabilities.

7️⃣ AI stealing all attention?
Crypto has long ceased to rely on "technological narratives" to survive
Honestly:

BTC's recent rally

ETFs, institutional allocations, macro liquidity

are almost unrelated to technological upgrades

If cryptocurrencies could only tell stories through technological breakthroughs,
they would have already gone to zero.
What we should really be worried about is:
👉 The competition between AI and crypto for computing power and electricity

Electricity resources

Chips

Data centers

Policy tilt

All these could marginally squeeze the space for crypto mining and infrastructure.

In summary:
The "doomsday scenarios" that the market worries about every day
are mostly low-probability, long-term, emotional risks.
The real things to keep an eye on are:

Changes in miner costs and hash rate structure

Long-term liquidity below expectations

Non-linear shocks from taxes and regulations

Credit risks of centralized institutions

Cross-sector competition between energy and computing power

These things may not make noise, but they can truly be deadly.