#TRUMP TRUMP tokens have a high risk of sharp decline. Core conclusion: a short-term break below **$4.70** will accelerate the drop to **$4.20–$4.30**; if triggered by regulatory actions/large unlocks/market panic, there is a high probability of a **20%+** single-day or weekly plunge, with extreme cases potentially hitting new lows.

1. Core Drivers of Sharp Decline (Strong Signals)

1. No fundamental support: purely Meme coin, relying on Trump IP and hype, with no real application/cash flow/technological barriers; decay in IP popularity and competition will directly impact demand.
2. Massive supply unlock: about 80% of tokens controlled by Trump-related entities, with a three-year unlock cycle continuously exerting selling pressure; large unlocks can trigger panic selling.
3. Technical breakdown: current price around **$4.94** (as of 2025-12-27), has broken below the key support of **$5.00**; RSI around 20.41 (deep oversold but no rebound signals), MACD shows persistent negative bars, indicating bearish momentum dominates.
4. Political and regulatory risks: Trump-related political events, tightening regulatory policies, compliance controversies (such as conflicts of interest) could trigger sudden sell-offs.
5. Liquidity and sentiment fragility: Meme coins have quick capital rotation; once hype fades, liquidity shrinks, amplifying declines; currently down over 93% from the all-time high of $73.43, investor confidence is low.
6. Market correlation risk: during crypto bear markets/Bitcoin corrections, risk assets are sold off first, making TRUMP more vulnerable to heavy hits.

2. Key Price Levels and Trigger Thresholds

- Short-term support: $4.70 (initial stop-loss) → $4.20–$4.30 (strong support, close to historical low of $4.29)
- Crash trigger point: break below $4.70 with increased volume; unlock announcements/negative political news/regulatory bearish signals; market drops of 5%+ in a single day
- Crash scenario: daily decline of 10%–20%; in extreme cases, falling below $4.20, approaching zero risk

3. Short Selling / Risk Control Checklist

1. Entry signals: break below $4.70 with hourly volume spike; RSI<25 with no rebound + MACD death cross persists
2. Stop-loss: $5.05 (exit when recovers above $5.00 and stabilizes)
3. Take profit: first target $4.20–$4.30; if accelerating downward, watch for $3.80–$4.00
4. Position size: do not short more than 5% of total funds per coin; strictly control leverage (≤3x)
5. Exit signals: volume-driven rebound breaking above $5.00; positive policy/event news