Read five hundred pages of reports from five top institutions: What do they think about the crypto market in 2026?

Author | Eli5DeFi

Editor | Deep潮 TechFlow

This article does not represent Wu Shuo’s views and does not constitute any investment or financial advice. Readers should strictly comply with local laws and regulations.

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As the crypto industry moves toward 2026, leading research institutions are gradually reaching a consensus:

“The era of purely speculative cycles is fading away.”

Instead, a structurally mature market driven by liquidity convergence, infrastructure development, and industry consolidation is emerging, rather than market fluctuations dominated by short-term narratives.

Below are the core insights from major crypto research institutions’ outlooks for 2026 (saving you the time of reading hundreds of pages of reports):

Key Summary:

“The Death of Cycles”: Research institutions unanimously agree that the traditional four-year halving speculative cycle is gradually diminishing. The future will be led by structural maturity, with value increasingly focused on “Ownership Coins” that feature revenue-sharing models and projects with real-world applications, rather than short-term hype narratives.

“The Rise of Agentic Finance”: Major institutions (such as Delphi Digital, a16z, Coinbase) predict that AI Agents will become primary economic participants. This will drive the development of “Know Your Agent” (KYA) identity protocols and machine-native settlement layers, technologies that surpass human manual operations.

Super-App Integration: As US regulations become clearer (research from Four Pillars, Messari, etc.), complex crypto experiences will be integrated into user-friendly “Super-Apps” and privacy-preserving blockchains. These technologies will hide technical details and promote mass adoption.

1. Delphi Digital’s Perspective: Infrastructure, Applications, and Markets

Delphi Digital’s macro hypothesis is based on “Global Convergence.” They predict that by 2026, the divergence in global central bank monetary policies will end, shifting toward a unified cycle of rate cuts and liquidity injections. After the Fed ends quantitative tightening (QT), improved global liquidity will benefit hard assets like gold and Bitcoin.

2026 Outlook:

1. Agentic Finance

Major infrastructure expansion is reflected in the rise of “Agentic Finance.” AI agents will no longer be just chatbots but capable of actively managing capital, executing complex DeFi strategies, and optimizing yields on-chain without human intervention.

2. Social Trading and “Pump” Economy

In consumer applications, Delphi emphasizes the stickiness of platforms like @Pumpfun and predicts the maturation of “Social Trading.” Trends will shift from simple meme coin speculation to more complex copy-trading layers, with strategy sharing becoming a tokenized product.

3. Institutional Liquidity

Market structure will evolve with the further proliferation of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Traditional finance (TradFi) liquidity will enter the crypto market, no longer just as a hedging tool but as a standard component of macro-driven portfolio allocation.

2. Messari: Crypto Industry Outlook 2026 — Market Structure and Practicality Rise

Messari’s core argument is “Separation of Utility and Speculation.” They believe the traditional “four-year cycle” model is becoming less relevant, and markets are diverging. They hypothesize that 2025 will be a year of institutional investors winning and retail investors facing setbacks, while 2026 will be the era of “System-Level Applications,” not just asset price speculation.

2026 Outlook:

1. Privacy Shift ($ZEC)

Messari presents a contrarian growth view: a revival in privacy. They highlight assets like @Zcash (ZEC), which are not just “privacy coins” but necessary hedges against increasing surveillance and corporate control, predicting a re-pricing opportunity for “privacy cryptocurrencies.”

2. Ownership Coins

A new category of tokens—“Ownership Coins”—will emerge in 2026. These tokens combine economic, legal, and governance rights. Messari believes these tokens could address accountability crises in decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and may spawn the first projects with a market cap of over a billion dollars.

3. DePIN and AI Integration

Research also explores the potential of DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks), which are expected to find market fit in the real world by meeting the huge demands for computation and data in AI.

3. Four Pillars: Regulatory Restructuring and Super-Apps

Four Pillars’ 2026 outlook centers on “Regulatory Restructuring.” Their core hypothesis is that US legislative actions (notably the GENIUS and CLARITY bills) will serve as blueprints for comprehensive market reform.

This regulatory clarity will act as a catalyst, transforming the market from a “Wild West” state into a formal economic sector.

Four Pillars’ 2026 Outlook:

1. Super-App Era

They predict that the current fragmented crypto application ecosystem will gradually consolidate into “Super-Apps.” These platforms will be driven by stablecoins, integrating payments, investing, and lending functions, simplifying blockchain complexity and enhancing user experience.

2. RWA Tokenization

As markets reorganize, tokenization of stocks and traditional assets will become a trend, with a focus on practical utility rather than experimental projects.

3. Technological Maturity

On the technical front, the report emphasizes the importance of Zero-Knowledge Virtual Machines (ZKVM) and Proof Markets on Ethereum. These are seen as key infrastructural technologies to handle the increasing traffic from emerging regulatory bodies.

4. Coinbase: Crypto Market Outlook 2026 — Market, Regulation, and Adoption

Coinbase’s report introduces the “Death of Cycles” view. They explicitly state that 2026 will mark the end of the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle theory. The future market will be driven by structural factors, including macro demand for alternative stores of value and the formalization of crypto as a mid-tier alternative asset class.

2026 Outlook:

1. Tokenomics 2.0

Moving from “governance-only” tokens to “income-linked” models. Protocols will gradually introduce token buy-and-burn mechanisms or fee-sharing (in line with new regulations) to better align token holder interests with platform success.

2. Digital Asset Trading 2.0 (DAT 2.0)

The crypto market will shift toward more professionalized trading modes, especially in “Sovereign Block Space” procurement and trading. Block space will be viewed as a vital resource in the digital economy.

3. Intersection of AI and Crypto

Coinbase predicts that AI agents will heavily utilize crypto payment channels, driving demand for “crypto-native settlement layers.” These layers will support continuous microtransactions between machines, which traditional payment systems cannot handle.

5. a16z Crypto: Outlook for 2026 — The Future of Web3 Finance and AI

a16z Crypto’s outlook is based on a core hypothesis: “The Internet has become a bank.” They believe that the flow of value will become as free as information. The friction between on-chain and off-chain worlds is the main bottleneck, and 2026 will be the year to eliminate this barrier through better infrastructure.

a16z Crypto’s 2026 Outlook:

1. KYA (Know Your Agent)

As AI Agents become major economic players, identity verification will shift from traditional KYC (Know Your Customer) to KYA (Know Your Agent). AI agents will need cryptographically signed credentials to transact, which will give rise to a new layer of identity infrastructure.

2. “Asset Origin” vs. “Asset Tokenization”

a16z predicts that the market will gradually shift from tokenizing off-chain assets (e.g., buying government bonds and putting them on-chain) to generating debt and assets directly on-chain. This transition can reduce service costs and greatly enhance transparency.

3. Privacy as a Competitive Edge

In a world of open-source code, a16z emphasizes that privacy technologies (especially the ability to maintain state privacy) will become the most critical competitive advantage for blockchains. This will generate strong network effects for privacy-preserving blockchains.

4. Universal Wealth Management

The combination of AI and crypto payment channels will democratize complex wealth management (such as rebalancing assets and tax-loss harvesting), allowing ordinary users to access services previously limited to high-net-worth individuals.

Summary

The 2026 crypto industry outlook shows that structural maturity will replace speculative cycles, driven by liquidity convergence, clearer regulation, and infrastructure development.

Major research institutions agree that value will concentrate in settlement layers, aggregation platforms, and systems capable of attracting real users and capital.

Future opportunities will shift from chasing cycles to understanding capital flows. 2026 will reward projects that quietly build infrastructure, distribution capabilities, and trust at scale.