#通货膨胀 Looking at the Federal Reserve's latest decision, I am reminded of the hesitation before the 2021 inflation storm. Back then, Powell also said inflation was "transient," only for subsequent rate cuts to far exceed expectations. This time, it seems history is repeating certain patterns, just with the roles reversed.

The 25 basis point rate cut in December appears to continue easing, but the real story lies in the dot plot—only one rate cut expected by 2026. This contrast reflects the Fed's true attitude towards inflation: still not fully confident. The risk of inflation remaining sticky to the upside is a key point. Looking back at historical cycles, whenever the central bank mentions "upside risk," it often signals room for policy shifts.

Market reactions are quite interesting. Bitcoin briefly surged to $94,000, then quickly fell back to $91,918. This oscillation is a sign of information asymmetry—bulls believe the rate cut cycle will continue, while bears see through the hawkish core of the dot plot. Morgan Stanley and analysts are divided—some say the rate cuts will be less than 100 basis points, others expect 100 basis points—this disagreement itself highlights the complexity of the current situation.

I have seen many such turning points. The hesitation in 2015, the sharp shift in 2018, the floodgate-style easing in 2020—each change in inflation expectations has determined the asset performance over the next one or two years. The real question now is not whether rate cuts will continue, but whether inflation can be truly tamed. If the labor market remains weak and inflation stays sticky, 2026 could face a policy dilemma. This is precisely the most dangerous moment in past investment cycles.