MP Materials Below $65: Is America's Rare Earth Play Worth the Bet?

The Rare Earth Supply Chain Shift Is Real

MP Materials owns something the U.S. has been desperately chasing—the Mountain Pass mine in California, the only domestically scalable rare earth element operation in the country. This strategic importance caught the Department of Defense’s attention, which poured $400 million into the company to accelerate its magnet production capacity. That backing initially sent the stock soaring to $100 a share in October, but it’s since retreated below $60.

The pullback raises a critical question: Is this a buying opportunity, or a warning sign?

2026 Could Be the Inflection Point

Here’s why investors are watching closely. MP Materials isn’t just mining rare earths—it’s building an end-to-end domestic supply chain for something America desperately needs. The company plans to begin shipping U.S.-manufactured NdFeB permanent magnets from its Fort Worth facility by year-end, with production ramping significantly through 2026.

For context, China has controlled virtually the entire rare earth magnet supply chain for decades. MP’s push to localize production represents a fundamental shift in American industrial capability. That’s not hyperbole—it’s central to national defense and technology strategy.

Recent financial signals are encouraging. Last quarter, MP reported smaller-than-expected losses, achieved record NdPr-oxide output, and generated nearly $22 million in magnet precursor revenue. These aren’t staggering numbers, but they signal the company is moving from pure R&D phase into actual production and revenue generation.

The transformation deepens in mid-2026 when MP commissions its heavy rare-earth separation facility. This means the company can produce dysprosium and terbium—critical metals that prevent high-performance magnets from overheating under extreme conditions. These elements are foundational to advanced defense applications, aerospace technology, and renewable energy systems.

Where the Risk Lives

Here’s the catch: MP hasn’t proven it can scale manufacturing profitably. Expanding magnet factories requires massive capital investment, and factory ramp-ups are notoriously messy. The company may hit production milestones but miss profitability targets. That’s a real execution risk that won’t show up in quarterly earnings until 2026 or later.

The company currently expects to turn profitable next quarter, which is a positive signal. But true growth—not just breaking even—demands successfully scaling magnet production without cost overruns. One slip in the execution playbook, and the stock could take another hit.

There’s also the question of White House support sustainability. Political priorities shift. If the geopolitical focus changes or new administrations reprioritize spending, that $400 million DOD backing becomes less certain.

The Real Question

At $65, you’re not buying MP Materials for today’s cash flow or earnings. You’re betting on a 2026+ inflection where domestic rare earth magnet production becomes a genuine profit driver, and where continued government backing justifies the company’s massive expansion plans.

If MP executes its milestones and maintains political support, early entry under $65 could look brilliant in three years. If execution stalls or geopolitical winds shift, you’re holding a stock heavily dependent on circumstances outside management’s control.

That’s a calculated risk, not a sure thing.