Soybean Futures Rally to Close Week in Green, Data Signals Mixed Outlook

Soybean futures staged a solid recovery into Friday’s close, with front-month contracts gaining between 1 to 2½ cents. January soybeans finished the week with a modest ½ cent advance, though they retreated 44½ cents from this week’s peak. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price climbed 2¾ cents to settle at $10.52¾.

Broader Complex Sees Mixed Performance

Soymeal futures extended gains with December contracts up $1 to $2.30 per ton on the session, yet the week saw December decline $7.40 overall. In contrast, soy oil futures traded lower, dropping 33 to 40 points, with December posting an 11-point gain compared to last Friday’s close.

Speculators Reduce Short Exposure

Commitment of Traders data as of October 7th painted an interesting picture of positioning shifts. Soybean speculators maintained a net short position of 353 contracts, representing a substantial 38,359-contract reduction in net shorts from the previous week. This draw-down suggests some repositioning among market participants.

Crushing Volume Hits Record in August

The USDA’s latest Fats & Oils report revealed crushing activity topped 198 million bushels in August—marking a record monthly high and 18.19% above year-ago levels, though down 3.48% sequentially from July. Soybean oil inventory levels stood at 1.79 billion pounds, down 4.62% from July’s finish but elevated 9.71% year-over-year, indicating relatively comfortable supply despite recent strength in cents pricing.

South American Planting Lag Persists

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange data showed soybean planting advanced 12% week-over-week to reach 24.6% completion. However, this still trails last year’s pace by 11 percentage points, a development that could support futures values if delays extend.

Session Snapshot:

• Jan 26 Soybeans: $11.25, +2½ cents
• Nearby Cash: $10.52¾, +2¾ cents
• Mar 26 Soybeans: $11.34¼, +2¼ cents
• May 26 Soybeans: $11.43¼, +1¾ cents

The week’s modest gains come amid a combination of reduced speculative shorting and supply considerations, though near-term direction remains contingent on additional weather and demand signals.