Market cycle turning point? Global assets re-pricing

The market on the 24th revealed an interesting signal: risk assets and defensive assets are rising simultaneously, indicating that market concerns about the economic outlook are intensifying.

Tech Stocks Lead the Rally, but Market Caution Remains

U.S. stock index futures are all optimistic, with Nasdaq 100 futures leading the way, up by 0.52%. Driven by tech stocks, Google once again hit a new high, with a pre-market price of $307.34, up 2.57%. Chip giant NVIDIA (NVDA) and electric vehicle leader Tesla (TSLA) also performed well, rising 0.49% and 1.83% respectively, continuing their recent strong momentum.

However, market sentiment’s fragility also suggests that risks still exist. Traders are heavily buying put options for downside protection, reflecting that behind the rebound, defensive sentiment toward the future market remains.

Energy Market Turmoil: Peace Dawn Pushes Oil Prices Down

More noteworthy is the change in the energy market. Crude oil prices have fallen for four consecutive days, driven by rising expectations that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may end soon. The Trump administration is urging Ukraine to reach a peace agreement framework by the 27th. Once substantial progress is made on the peace talks, the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Russia will add more supply pressure to the already oversupplied crude oil market next year.

As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 0.29% to $57.80 per barrel, with Brent crude dropping more sharply, down 1.41% to $61.64 per barrel. This trend is causing a chain reaction across the global energy price system.

Crypto Market Rollercoaster

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced intense volatility recently. Last Friday, it dipped to $80,537, hitting a seven-month low, but then rebounded strongly. The latest data shows Bitcoin has recovered to 87.72K, with a 24-hour increase of 0.05%. However, options market data warns us—many traders are increasing their holdings of put options, indicating ongoing disagreement about the market’s future direction.

Fed Signals, Gold Becomes Safe Haven

Federal Reserve Chairman Williams’ latest comments have injected new momentum into rate cut expectations. Last Friday, he stated that the Fed still has room for further rate cuts in the near term. The market currently prices in a 71.5% chance of a rate cut in December. This increased expectation has directly boosted the appeal of defensive assets.

Gold prices stabilized after a dip, rising 0.07% on the 24th, currently at $4,068 per ounce, roughly equivalent to about 4,000 euros per ounce, demonstrating its stability as an international asset allocation tool.

Next Week’s Data Schedule: PCE is Key

On November 25th, the U.S. September PPI data will be released; on the 26th, the third-quarter GDP revision, October personal income and expenditure, and the closely watched PCE inflation index will be announced. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and South Korea’s central banks will also publish rate decisions. On the 27th, during the Thanksgiving holiday, U.S. financial markets will be closed.

This week’s economic data will determine the market’s reassessment of policy paths for 2026 and will directly influence the next moves of major assets like Bitcoin and gold.