Late November Market Focus: Bitcoin, Gold, USD/JPY, NVIDIA Trend Analysis and Strategies

Market Background: Tech Stocks Rebound, Fed Policy as a Variable

This week’s market focus is on the performance of US Tech Stocks and the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate decision expectations. Leading AI chip company NVIDIA’s Q3 earnings surpassed expectations, driving the Nasdaq up 0.59% and the S&P 500 up 0.38%, ending a four-day losing streak. However, the minutes from the October Fed meeting sent cautious signals—there is a clear divergence among policymakers on the timing of rate cuts, with many leaning towards maintaining current policy in December. Since October non-farm employment data will be incorporated into the November report, the Fed lacks sufficient employment data before the year-end decision, leading to a significant downward revision of rate cut expectations. The market will closely watch the impact of US employment data releases on the trend.

Bitcoin: Key Support Test, Clear Downward Signal

Bitcoin fell 1.55% on Wednesday (November 19), touching a low of $88,497, a seven-month low. The latest data shows the current price at 87.65K, down -0.58%, with ongoing downward pressure. Technically, Bitcoin has broken below the long-term upward trendline, a significant turning point indicating that short-term momentum remains bearish. Investors should remain cautious.

Key Support and Rebound Mechanism: If Bitcoin encounters resistance at $98,000 during a rebound, it may further test the support zone between $86,500 and $75,000. The condition for reversing the downtrend is to recover and stabilize above the $100,000 level.

• Support levels: 90,000, 86,000, 75,000
• Resistance levels: 98,000, 100,000, 106,000

Gold: Time for Space, Range-bound Consolidation Awaiting Breakthrough

Gold rose 0.24% on Wednesday, reaching a high of $4,132.8, but then retraced nearly all gains, indicating significant resistance to upward movement. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting gold may enter a consolidation phase, adopting a “time for space” pattern—repeatedly testing the bottom within a broad range of $3,890 to $4,225.

Market Outlook: If gold rebounds and breaks through the $4,100 level, it may challenge the $4,130 to $4,220 range. However, after the rebound, it is expected to repeatedly test the $4,000 support. Investors should pay close attention to the timing around November 27, as this period could present an important turning point.

• Support levels: 4,000, 3,930, 3,760
• Resistance levels: 4,100, 4,220, 4,320

USD/JPY: Overbought Condition Accelerates Rise, Caution on Reversal Risks

USD/JPY increased 1.06% on Wednesday, reaching a high of 157.18, maintaining a three-day upward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered overbought territory, indicating the pair is in an accelerated upward phase. Short-term bullish bias is recommended.

Trading Suggestion: If USD/JPY stabilizes around 157.0, it is expected to further rebound and challenge the 160.0 level. Traders should be especially cautious around the period of November 27, as this window often carries a higher risk of reversal. Risk management should be prepared in advance to prevent rapid price reversals.

• Support levels: 157.0, 155.0, 153.30
• Resistance levels: 158.0, 159.0, 160.0

NVIDIA: Short-term Rebound, High-level Volatility Unlikely to Change

NVIDIA rose 2.85% on Wednesday, reaching a high of $187.8. The overall technical structure remains unchanged. The current performance mainly shows a rebound characteristic, and the outlook suggests continued high-level consolidation.

Key Support and Next Steps: If NVIDIA can stabilize above $180.0, it is likely to rebound toward the $195.0 to $200.0 range. However, caution is advised: if the rebound faces resistance near $200 again, a pullback toward around $180.0 to seek support is possible.

• Support levels: 180.0, 175.0, 170.0
• Resistance levels: 190.0, 200.0, 212.0

Summary

The current market is at a critical juncture of policy expectation adjustments and technical turning points. Bitcoin breaking below trendlines warrants caution, gold will test support repeatedly within its range, USD/JPY’s overbought condition increases reversal risk, and NVIDIA remains in high-level consolidation. Around November 27, multiple assets face potential turning points. Investors are advised to closely monitor the effective突破 of support and resistance levels.