The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, with Goldman Sachs expecting it to break through 6.85 by 2026.

Exchange Rate Hits Nearly One-Year Low, Appreciation Accelerates

Recently, the performance of the RMB against the US dollar has been impressive. As of November 26, the onshore USD/RMB exchange rate fell to 7.0824, and the offshore USD/RMB fell to 7.0779, marking a new low not seen in over a year. Furthermore, the CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index reached 98.22 on November 21, the highest level since April of this year.

This upward trend is not coincidental. The People’s Bank of China has continuously guided the exchange rate to strengthen by setting the midpoint rate daily. Within a fluctuation range of 2%, the exchange rate has steadily risen. Meanwhile, state-owned banks frequently buying US dollars have further stabilized the appreciation momentum, ensuring the continuity of this trend.

Dual Drivers Behind the Appreciation

The RMB’s appreciation is driven by two forces. On one hand, the Federal Reserve’s gradual rate cuts have created room for the RMB to strengthen; on the other hand, domestic policy measures guiding currency appreciation have played a key role. The combination of these two factors has contributed to the current appreciation scenario.

From a strategic perspective, Chinese authorities seem to be intentionally using the RMB’s stable performance to build international credibility. This recalls the history during the 1998 Asian financial crisis when the RMB refused to devalue and maintained its regional currency anchor position. Today’s measures are, to some extent, a continuation of that tradition.

From Devaluation to Appreciation: Policy Shift

Compared to the past, the significance of RMB appreciation is more profound. In 2018, amid trade frictions, the RMB depreciated by about 5%; since 2025, the RMB has appreciated by nearly 3%. This shift from devaluation to appreciation reflects a major adjustment in policy focus.

Data from the Bank for International Settlements further confirms the influence of this trend. Since the last survey in 2022, the daily trading volume of USD/RMB has increased by nearly 60%, reaching $781 billion, accounting for over 8% of total global daily foreign exchange trading. This indicates a significant rise in international market attention toward the RMB.

Internationalization Becomes a New Policy Focus

Several international analysts point out that demonstrating the RMB’s strength and stability in an unstable global market environment provides strong support for advancing RMB internationalization. This stability itself is a competitive advantage.

Goldman Sachs’s forecasts are even more specific and far-reaching. Analysts believe that, based on the authorities’ clear recognition of the RMB’s strong trend, the exchange rate may reach 1 USD to 7 RMB by the end of the year, and continue to appreciate to 6.85 RMB within a year. More importantly, Goldman Sachs considers RMB internationalization to be a key policy direction of the Chinese government, and this process is expected to accelerate significantly in the coming years.

All these changes point to a consistent core: the international status of the RMB is being reshaped.