Recently, ETH's performance has indeed been quite volatile. A few days ago, a whale address's activity drew a lot of attention—after withdrawing 12,000 ETH, they directly collateralized and borrowed 20 million USDT. This move caused many retail investors to become eager and ask in private messages, "Should I follow?"

But here, we need to think calmly. On the surface, it looks like a bold bottom-fishing signal, but there may be things beneath the surface that you didn't expect. Today, let's analyze how to determine whether such whale operations are genuine opportunities or carefully laid traps—especially for beginners, these three signals are indispensable.

**First: The overall market environment**

Currently, the crypto market is in a typical consolidation phase, neither a clear bull market nor a decisive bear market. In this context, whale actions are likely just short-term arbitrage rather than part of a long-term strategic layout. In other words, even if whales continue to add positions, ETH is unlikely to sustain a continuous upward trend. Most likely, it's short-term volatility, and the risks should not be underestimated.

**Second: ETH's fundamental factors**

Whales willing to invest real capital usually have confidence in ETH's long-term value. At this point, you need to pay attention to several key data points: whether the post-merge inflation rate can stay within target levels, whether the DeFi ecosystem's locked-in value is expanding, and whether activity on Ethereum Layer 2 solutions is increasing. If these data points are improving simultaneously, it indicates that whales' judgments are supported by fundamentals, making bottom-fishing more credible; if the data is deteriorating, then whales might be just engaging in short-term speculation, and caution is advised.

**Third: The whales' subsequent actions**

After bottom-fishing, do whales hold their positions steadily, or do they quickly sell to realize profits? This can be tracked through on-chain data to observe changes in their holdings. Stable holdings suggest long-term positioning; frequent adjustments may indicate an intention to cash out.