Does investing 2568 in gold really yield profits? A detailed answer based on market data

The current gold market is attracting massive attention from investors worldwide, especially after the price reached an all-time high of $2,790 per ounce in October last year. But the big question many are asking is: Should I keep holding gold? And how should I proceed to get good returns?

Four Key Factors Driving the Rise in Gold Prices

Gold prices did not increase by chance. Several fundamental reasons have contributed to this continuous upward adjustment.

Central banks around the world are heavily buying gold

The first sign of market strength is the accumulation of gold by central banks, especially China, India, and Turkey. In the first quarter of this year, net gold purchases reached 290 tons, which is 36% above the normal average. This strategy reflects that many countries plan to reduce reliance on the US dollar. China increased its gold holdings from about 1,900 tons to over 2,500 tons, while India plans to raise its share to 10% by 2025.

Geopolitical tensions remain high

The situation in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, and international political uncertainties have led investors to seek safer assets. Gold is the first choice because its value is not tied to any one economy.

Easing interest rate policies signal

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in early 2025, which reduces yields on bonds and traditional assets. This makes gold, which does not generate interest income, a more attractive option because the (opportunity cost) decreases.

Hidden inflation and fiscal concerns

US budget deficits and persistent inflation concerns drive investors to buy gold to protect investment value.

Leading Financial Institutions’ Perspectives – Mostly Positive

Each financial institution has slightly different assessments but all point in the same direction.

Goldman Sachs expects prices to reach $2,700 per ounce by the end of the year, citing strong demand from central banks.

J.P. Morgan is more cautious but remains positive, estimating that falling interest rates and strong institutional demand will support prices.

FX Empire has the most optimistic outlook, predicting prices could hit $3,000 per ounce if geopolitical tensions escalate.

Morgan Stanley forecasts a price of $2,800 in 2025, while UBS advises caution against rapid and aggressive upward movements.

Technical Analysis – Uptrend Still Possible

From the price chart, gold has a key support level at $2,447 per ounce (the 200-day MA) and resistance at $2,800. The price remains above this support despite some consolidation. The RSI indicator shows the market has moved away from overbought conditions, which is a positive sign for further upward movement.

The MACD index is approaching the Zero Line, and if it breaks above, it will confirm a medium-term uptrend. Increased trading volume during the rally indicates market confidence.

How to Invest in Gold for Maximum Profit

Choose your time horizon based on your goals

• Long-term (3-5 years or more): Gold is a good diversification asset, often moving inversely to stocks and risky assets.
• Short-term (6 months - 1 year): Be cautious of volatility and have a clear entry and exit plan.

Balanced investment allocation

Most experts recommend allocating between 5-10% of your total portfolio. For example, if you have 1 million THB, invest only 50,000-100,000 THB, not exceeding 15-20%, to maintain balance and diversify risk.

Attractive entry points

A reasonable buy zone is $2,447–$2,500 per ounce. If prices fall below this, it’s an opportunity to accumulate gradually. Use a dollar-cost averaging strategy by dividing your funds into 4-6 parts and buying each time the price dips, rather than making a lump-sum purchase.

( Risk management Although gold is a safe asset, it still carries risks. In the short term, prices could drop 10-15% during volatile markets or even 20-25% in a crisis. Therefore, if you invest 100,000 THB, be prepared for fluctuations down to 75,000–85,000 THB.

Summary – Who is Gold Suitable For?

In the current context, buying gold for savings is a reasonable choice for those who:

• Have medium- to long-term investment goals
• Want to diversify their portfolio
• Can tolerate short-term volatility

However, it is important to invest only with funds that are not needed in the short term and to consider other investment types for proper diversification. The key principle is not to overextend financially and to have a clear exit plan from the start.