2024 US CPI Release Schedule and Full Year Trend Analysis

Keep Track of CPI Release Times and Market Trends

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a global asset pricing indicator, especially since its release schedule often precedes the Federal Reserve’s decision-making reference indicator, the PCE data. Therefore, precise timing of CPI releases is crucial for traders. This data is released monthly, on the first business day of each month or the closest business day. Considering daylight saving time changes, Taiwan time has two schedules: Summer Time at 20:30, Winter Time at 21:30.

The 2024 CPI release schedule (Taiwan time) is as follows:

How to Differentiate CPI, Core CPI, and PCE?

Inflation measurement systems may seem complex, but the core logic is clear. The year-over-year CPI and PCE are the two most closely watched indicators.

The main difference lies in calculation methods and coverage. CPI includes all consumption items, thus heavily influenced by volatile food and energy prices; core CPI excludes these volatile components, better reflecting underlying inflation trends. PCE uses chain-weighted methods, offering more flexibility than CPI’s Laspeyres weighting—when oil prices surge, consumers switch to alternative energy sources, and PCE can immediately reflect this substitution effect, smoothing out index fluctuations.

Timing determines market response order. CPI is released first, making the market highly sensitive to this data, often causing significant asset volatility. PCE is released later but is a key reference for Fed decisions, so policymakers prioritize its reliability.

Regarding annual vs. monthly growth rates, the annual rate better filters seasonal effects and more stably reflects true price trends, which is why both markets and central banks prefer it.

CPI Composition Breakdown: Understanding the Details

The US CPI’s unbalanced composition determines which factors are most worth tracking:

• Housing (30~40%) — Largest share, directly reflecting rent and housing costs
• Food and Beverages (13~15%) — Second largest, essential living costs
• Energy (6~8%) — Volatile, highly related to international geopolitics
• Medical Care (7~9%) — Structural inflation source
• Transportation (5~6% and 2~3% for used cars) — Influenced by gasoline prices and supply chains
• Education and Communication (6~7%) — Long-term structural cost increases
• Clothing and Leisure — Smaller weight but reflects consumer resilience

Investors should focus on housing and food, as they drive the overall inflation trend.

Three Major Drivers of CPI in 2024

Variable 1: Policy Uncertainty from the US Election Cycle

The US presidential election will be held in November 2024. Regardless of the winner, campaign promises tend to lean toward easing policies, and geopolitical tensions may intensify, accelerating de-globalization. These factors can increase import costs, ultimately passing through to consumer prices and creating inflation stickiness.

Variable 2: Market Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts

According to CME Group data, the market currently predicts the highest probability of a 6-basis-point rate cut in 2024. This reflects expectations that inflation will decline throughout the year, but whether this materializes depends on actual economic data.

Variable 3: Global Supply Chain and Logistics Costs

The Red Sea crisis has caused rerouting of Asia-Europe routes, with freight rates rising over 150% since early December 2023. Although this impact is less severe than during the COVID-19 pandemic or the “Ever Given” incident in 2021, regional logistics disruptions will eventually raise consumer costs, warranting close attention.

What Do Historical Patterns Tell Us?

Over the past 30 years, the US has experienced four major CPI volatility cycles:

• July 1990 – March 1991: Savings and Loan crisis + Gulf War oil shock → Recession
• September 2000 – October 2001: Dot-com bubble burst + 9/11 → Market crash
• January 2008 – June 2009: Subprime mortgage crisis → Financial tsunami
• March 2020 onward: Pandemic-induced economic halt → Rapid CPI decline; followed by massive Fed stimulus → CPI soared to historic highs by June 2022; as pandemic receded and logistics recovered, CPI has been steadily declining since late 2022

This cycle indicates that global logistics status is an invisible driver of CPI.

CPI Trends in 2024: Outlook

The latest IMF forecast provides a framework: US GDP growth in 2024 is projected at 2.1% (second among major economies), slowing to 1.7% in 2025; global inflation is expected to fall from high levels in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024, further dropping to 4.4% in 2025.

Based on this macro backdrop and the three major variables:

• Q1: Due to the downward volatility of commodities in H1 2023 and low base effects, CPI may not continue to decline rapidly; oil inventories are still decreasing, supporting international oil prices. CPI is expected to bottom out.
• Q2: Risks from US election, geopolitical logistics costs, and low base effects may cause CPI to rebound.
• H2: The high-base cycle begins to take effect, combined with slowing economic growth, leading to another decline in CPI.

Overall, US CPI is expected to follow a “V-shaped” trajectory: bottoming in Q1, gently rebounding in Q2, and gradually declining in the second half. This trend will exert moderate pressure on US stocks and suggest a potential easing in long-term bond yields.