2024 US CPI Release Schedule and Market Impact Analysis

Investor Must-Know: 2024 US CPI Release Schedule

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI), as a global market indicator, serves as a barometer for the capital markets. Its release timing and data can directly impact major asset prices. Contrary to popular belief, the US CPI release date is not fixed but follows specific rules.

The basic rule for CPI release timing is that it is published on the first business day of each month or the closest business day, but the exact time varies with seasonal changes:

• Daylight Saving Time (Taiwan time 20:30)
• Standard Time (Taiwan time 21:30)

The 2024 US CPI release schedule (Taiwan time) is as follows:

Why Is the CPI Release Time So Important?

As the earliest inflation indicator, US CPI often triggers the most intense market reactions. This is because the PCE data (a metric the Federal Reserve prioritizes) is released later, and market investors are highly sensitive to the latest inflation signals, often adjusting asset allocations immediately after CPI release.

From this logic, having early knowledge of the CPI release schedule helps traders prepare risk management strategies in advance.

CPI, Core CPI, PCE: What Are the Differences?

Inflation measurement involves multiple indicators, which can confuse investors. Let’s clarify:

CPI vs. Core CPI: Difference in Food and Energy

Standard CPI covers all consumer goods, including volatile food and energy prices, which can fluctuate significantly due to oil prices or food crises. Core CPI excludes these two categories, providing a better reflection of underlying inflation trends. Investors should observe both to distinguish short-term volatility from structural inflation.

CPI vs. PCE: Different Calculation Methods Lead to Different Insights

They use different weighting methods. CPI employs fixed base period weights (Laspeyres), while PCE uses chain-weighted (Chained) methods that dynamically adjust weights. This means PCE better captures consumer substitution behavior—e.g., when oil prices surge, consumers switch to other energy sources, and PCE automatically reduces the weight of crude oil, avoiding overreaction to inflation. As a result, the Fed relies more on PCE data for policy decisions.

Year-over-Year vs. Month-over-Month: Choosing the Right Perspective

Month-over-month figures reflect the difference between this month and the previous month but are susceptible to seasonal fluctuations. Year-over-year compares the current month to the same month last year, automatically removing most seasonal factors, thus better indicating true price trends. Market investors and policymakers mainly focus on year-over-year data.

Market Focus: US CPI Year-over-Year vs. PCE Year-over-Year

The importance of these two core indicators varies:

US CPI YoY is released earliest, causing the most intense market reactions. If the data exceeds expectations, asset prices like stocks and bonds can fluctuate significantly within minutes. This makes CPI release timing a key point in global trading schedules.

US PCE YoY, though released later, is the Fed’s policy guide. The Fed places greater emphasis on PCE trends when setting interest rates. Therefore, for investors trying to anticipate Fed moves, PCE is equally important.

Interestingly, the directions and magnitudes of changes in both indicators are highly correlated, but markets tend to be more sensitive to the first released CPI data.

Main Components of US CPI

Understanding CPI’s internal structure helps investors conduct forward-looking analysis before macro data releases:

• Housing-related (rent and housing costs): 30-40%, the largest weight in CPI
• Food and beverages: 13-15%
• Medical care: 7-9%
• Education and communication: 6-7%
• Energy: 6-8%
• Transportation services: 5-6%
• Recreation: 3-5%
• New vehicles: 3-5%
• Apparel: 2-3%
• Used cars: 2-3%

From this structure, housing costs and food prices are the two main pillars influencing CPI trends. When these categories experience inflation or deflation, their impact on overall CPI is particularly significant.

What Driving Factors Will Affect US CPI in 2024?

Driving Factor 1: US Presidential Election Political Cycle

The US presidential election in November 2024 will inevitably influence policy directions throughout the year. Historically, election-year candidates tend to promise more economic stimulus to win votes. This could lead to increased government spending and continued monetary easing, exerting inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions may escalate, raising import costs, which are unfavorable for CPI to decline rapidly.

Driving Factor 2: Uncertainty in the Fed’s Rate Cut Pace

The Fed’s rate cut pace in 2024 directly impacts money supply and borrowing costs, influencing CPI trends. According to CME Fed Funds futures data, investors expect about 6 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2024, implying market confidence that inflation will gradually become manageable. However, if inflation proves more sticky than expected, the Fed may slow down rate cuts, exerting a reverse pressure on CPI expectations.

Driving Factor 3: Global Logistics and Geopolitical Conflicts

The Red Sea crisis continues to impact shipping rates along Asia-Europe routes. Since late 2023, attacks by Houthi forces on transit ships have forced shipping companies to avoid the Suez Canal, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, doubling freight costs on Asia-Europe routes.

While this impact is less severe than the 2021 “Ever Given” blockage, regional logistics disruptions will eventually push up transportation costs, which will be reflected in consumer prices. Therefore, logistics developments warrant ongoing monitoring.

The Four CPI Cycles in the US Over the Past Thirty Years

Historical analysis can help forecast future trends. Since the 1990s, the US has experienced four distinct CPI rising and falling cycles, each associated with specific economic events:

First cycle (1990–1991): Savings and loan crisis combined with Gulf War oil shocks led to recession, and CPI declined.

Second cycle (2000–2001): Dot-com bubble burst and 9/11 attacks caused economic downturn, easing inflation pressures.

Third cycle (2008–2009): Subprime mortgage crisis triggered a global financial tsunami, with CPI plunging sharply.

Fourth cycle (2020–present): COVID-19 pandemic caused economic standstill, initially crashing CPI; subsequent massive Fed stimulus pushed CPI to 40-year highs in 2021–2022; as global logistics recovered and pandemic eased, CPI declined again in 2023.

These cases show that global logistics status is an invisible driver of US CPI. Smooth logistics stabilize import prices; disruptions pass costs onto consumers.

Reasonable Expectations for US CPI Trends in 2024

According to the latest IMF forecast, the US economy is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2024, ranking among the top major economies. This relatively strong growth suggests inflation is unlikely to fall unexpectedly sharply.

Specifically, we anticipate the following pattern for CPI in 2024:

Q1 Bottoming Out: Due to the low base from the volatile commodity prices (especially oil) in H1 2023, YoY CPI will start to rebound from lows but not accelerate downward.

Q2 Rebound: Base effects turn adverse, combined with the start of the US political cycle and easing policies, along with the impact of the Red Sea crisis on transportation costs, CPI YoY may see a phased rebound.

H2 Decline: As the Fed gradually cuts rates and base effects worsen, CPI YoY is expected to decline again in the second half.

Overall, each data release in the 2024 US CPI schedule will influence markets, but the overall inflation trend will be complex—neither purely downward nor upward, but a “V-shaped” pattern of first low, then high, then decline. This has important implications for US stocks and other risk assets.

Conclusion

Mastering the US CPI release schedule and understanding the differences among inflation indicators are fundamental skills for participating in global capital markets. In 2024, CPI data will unfold under the combined influence of the US election cycle, Fed monetary policy, and global logistics dynamics. Investors need to monitor these three main threads simultaneously to make more accurate asset allocation decisions.