Gold Price Chart 10-Year Review: Will You Still Be Able to Buy in 2025?

By the end of 2024 and early 2025, global gold prices have reached historic highs. From a 10-year long-term perspective of the gold price chart, this surge has indeed set new records — the gains over this period are close to the highest levels in nearly 30 years, surpassing 31% in 2007 and 29% in 2010. However, after reaching a high in October and entering consolidation, market divergence has emerged: some are optimistic about the future, while others worry that it may be too late to enter.

Why is this wave of gold prices so fierce?

To understand the current gold price trend, it’s necessary to break down the three core forces behind it.

The first force comes from changing policy expectations. A series of adjustments to tariffs directly boosted risk aversion sentiment. Historical experience shows that during periods of policy uncertainty, gold typically experiences a short-term surge of 5–10%, and this year’s situation is exactly that. When facing policy changes, the market naturally tends to seek refuge in “safe assets” like gold.

The second force stems from the interest rate environment. The Federal Reserve’s dovish rate cut expectations profoundly influence gold pricing. When real interest rates (nominal interest rate minus inflation rate) decline, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, making gold more attractive. According to the latest CME interest rate tools data, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is 84.7%. Such data are often used to predict short-term gold price directions.

The third force comes from central bank actions. Central banks worldwide continue to increase their gold reserves. According to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2025, global net gold purchases by central banks reached 220 tons, a 28% increase from the previous quarter. In the first nine months of this year, central banks have accumulated about 634 tons of gold. More importantly, 76% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves over the next five years, while the proportion of US dollar reserves is expected to decrease.

In addition to these main drivers, several supporting factors are worth noting: global debt reaching $307 trillion limits policy space, leaning towards more easing monetary policies; shaken confidence in the US dollar; ongoing geopolitical risks; and short-term capital inflows driven by social media hype.

How do institutions view the future trend?

Despite recent pullbacks, professional institutions remain optimistic about the medium- and long-term outlook for gold.

J.P. Morgan’s commodities team considers the recent correction a “healthy pullback,” and has raised its Q4 2026 target price to $5,055 per ounce. Goldman Sachs maintains its end-2026 target of $4,900 per ounce. Bank of America is more aggressive; after previously raising its 2026 target to $5,000, it recently stated that gold could challenge the $6,000 level next year.

Looking at the 10-year historical trajectory of the gold price chart, each policy shift has been accompanied by price adjustments, but the long-term trend remains upward. This reflects gold’s fundamental role as a “trust in the world” reserve asset.

What should retail investors do now?

For experienced short-term traders: The current volatility offers many opportunities. Market liquidity is ample, and the direction of movement is relatively easier to judge. During sharp surges or drops, the momentum is clear. If you are familiar with gold’s volatility characteristics, you can leverage the fluctuations before and after US market data releases to find short-term trading points.

Advice for new investors: Start with small capital to test the waters. Avoid blindly increasing positions, as gold’s annual average volatility is 19.4%, comparable to stock markets. Use economic calendars to track US economic data as an auxiliary tool for trading decisions.

If you want to allocate physical gold for the long term: Be prepared to endure significant fluctuations. Although the long-term outlook is bullish, the next decade could see prices doubling or halving, depending on your ability to tolerate intense volatility. Also note that transaction costs for physical gold range between 5% and 20%.

Regarding portfolio allocation: Don’t put all your funds into gold. Gold’s volatility is not lower than stocks; diversification remains the more prudent choice. If you want to maximize returns, you can hold long-term while using price fluctuations for short-term trades, but this requires experience and risk management skills.

Final reminder: From a 10-year long-term perspective of the gold price chart, the structural factors supporting gold’s rise (high debt levels, policy easing bias, geopolitical risks) have not changed. However, in actual trading, be vigilant about short-term volatility, especially around US economic data releases and Federal Reserve meetings, which often lead to increased fluctuations. Whether short-term or medium- and long-term, the key is to avoid the vicious cycle of chasing high prices and selling low — this is especially important for novice investors.