Ladies and gentlemen, the Christmas holiday has not yet arrived, but the "frozen period" in the crypto market has already set in. As the US stock market closes, global liquidity instantly evaporates, and the crypto circle is even more in a "water shortage" state—under these market conditions, it's easy to get caught at high levels and become a Christmas decoration.

I've been watching the market for 8 years, and I have a judgment to share first: don't be fooled by the slight fluctuations before the holiday. A new downward cycle is forming, and at this stage, it's not the time to buy the dip but a window for timely stop-loss. Why am I so confident? Let me break it down.

From a fundamental perspective, the US stock market closure directly drains half of the global liquidity reserves. The crypto market relies heavily on capital; now that the water source is cut off, a small amount of funds trying to push the market cannot create waves and is more likely to be precisely targeted by bears in a low-liquidity environment—like a market with no supervision, bad things are more likely to happen.

Looking at the technical side, this is the real weakness. BTC has recently been consolidating at high levels, appearing stable, but the trading volume has shrunk for five consecutive days. This is a typical sign of "virtual fat"—if it can't go up, it will go down; this is the market law. My calculations show that short-term support for BTC is at $85,000-$85,500. Once this level is broken, the next target is $82,000; ETH's situation is even more severe, as it is weaker than BTC, with support levels at $2,750-$2,800. If broken, it will likely retest the previous bottom at $2,600.

The operation advice is straightforward: don't fall into the "Christmas optimism trap." Protecting your principal is more urgent than pursuing gains at this stage. Reducing positions, controlling risks, and waiting for confirmation signals are the right moves.