Deciphering the post-decision Saturday night ambush: The market has made its choice, and the script has entered a "neutral leaning hawkish" oscillation and correction phase.

The market has chosen to vote with its feet after the decision. BTC, ETH, and SOL all closed lower, especially ETH failed to hold the upper boundary of the previously discussed "firecracker pattern" and instead fell back into a key range. This is not the start of a bull market, but a collective liquidation of "hawkish rate cuts" and overly optimistic sentiment.

Combined with technical indicators, my strategy will shift from "trend-following main attack" to "defensive counterattack, waiting for key levels to determine the battle." Below is an update on the operational plan based on the latest market conditions.

1. The Three Core Coins: Latest Market Analysis and Strategy Adjustment

1. BTC: Break below key moving averages, enter deep consolidation

Latest analysis:
Price has effectively broken below the 55-period moving average, signaling clear short-term weakness.
Key support below is in the dense trading zone of 89,500 - 91,500, with long-term trend support at 80,000 - 75,000. ATR is as high as 9,795, indicating extremely volatile swings.

Conclusion: BTC has lost its short-term leadership, entering a wide-range oscillation phase that trades time for space. The next direction depends on testing the support below.

Operational strategy: Abandon all bottom-fishing fantasies; focus only on high-probability rebounds at critical levels.
Ambush/Positioning:
Level 1 Ambush Zone (light testing): 88,000 - 90,000. This is the recent support lower boundary, suitable for small positions to attempt rebounds.
Level 2 Ambush Zone (core setup): 80,000 - 82,000. This is a strong support zone on the weekly chart, also where most leverage liquidations may occur, with a very high risk-reward ratio.

Key risk control levels:
Stop-loss: $87,500 (Level 1 ambush), $78,000 (Level 2 ambush).
Take-profit:
(Level 1 ambush) Target: $94,000 - $96,000 (resistance zone at previous cost basis).
(Level 2 ambush) Target: $92,000 - $95,000.

2. ETH: Disproof of strong narrative, retreat to initial breakout point for battle

Latest analysis:
Price has sharply retreated, almost erasing the gains post-decision, falling back to the "firecracker pattern" starting zone (3,040-3,200),
ATR is 553, volatility remains high.

Conclusion: The whale logic (liquidity directly fueling the main surge) has been temporarily invalidated. The market now regards ETH as a "high Beta risk asset" rather than a "certainty main line." The current price is a battle point between bulls and bears.

Operational strategy: Play rebounds around key support zones but lower expectations, quick in and out.
Ambush/Positioning:
Best ambush point: 3,000 - 3,050. This is the last psychological line of defense for bulls and close to high-cost zones for whales, offering the best risk-reward for rebounds.

Observation point: If volume breaks below 3,000, give up on bullish ideas, next support at 2,700 - 2,750.

Key risk control levels:
Stop-loss: $2,950 (strictly enforce).
Take-profit:
First target: $3,300 - $3,350 (moving average resistance zone).
Second target: $3,500 - $3,550 (cost basis strong resistance, difficult to break immediately).

3. SOL: Weakness fully displayed, only rebound after extreme pessimism

Latest analysis:
Price is suppressed by all major weekly moving averages, showing significantly weaker momentum than BTC and ETH, with key support at 108 - 115.

Conclusion: SOL is now an indicator of "risk appetite"; only when the market is extremely optimistic can it generate excess returns. In the current environment, it’s best to remain on the sidelines or only attempt deep dip rebounds.

Operational strategy:
Only play ambushes at extreme levels (108-115), ignore other times.
Ambush/Positioning: The only worthwhile level is 108 - 115 USD. Do not intervene below this zone.

Key risk control levels:
Stop-loss: $105.
Take-profit: $140 - $145 (weekly moving average resistance zone).

2. Altcoin Rotation Strategy: Shift from "Offensive" to "Defensive Positioning"
As BTC and ETH trend weaken, altcoin movements (especially non-top-tier ones) will significantly delay. At this stage:
Abandon broad net-sweeping; focus only on the most robust ecosystems’ absolute leaders, which have better liquidity and resilience.
Set ambush prices lower and safer to reflect the increased market risk premium.

Optimal defensive altcoins:
Uniswap (UNI) – DeFi infrastructure core:
Logic: Regardless of bull or bear, trading demand remains. UNI is infrastructure, and during deep bear markets, its valuation has already fallen sharply.
Ambush zone: $4.8 - $5.0 (long-term trend support and dense chip area).
Stop-loss: $4.5.
Target: $10 - $11.

Rotation trigger: Await ETH to stabilize above 3350 on the daily chart and BTC above 95000; only then will the altcoin rotation be safe and sustainable. Until then, all are high-risk left-side ambushes.

3. Final Summary (Defensive Counterattack)

Current market stage: Increased risk, unclear trend, cash is king.

First phase: Tentative setup (33% of total funds)
ETH: Buy when price enters 3000-3050, strict stop-loss at 2950.
BTC: Buy when price enters 88000-89500, strict stop-loss at 87500.
Altcoin ambush: Reserve funds, only place 100U orders on OP at 2.1 or on UNI at 4.9.

Second phase: Core reserve (67% of total funds)

Scenario A (support holds, rebound): If BTC stabilizes above 88000 and ETH above 3000 with obvious 4-hour volume bullishness, deploy the remaining 67%, pyramiding into strong positions in ETH and BTC.

Scenario B (support fails, deep correction): This is the main combat scenario. If BTC drops below 87500 or ETH below 2950, patiently wait for the ultimate ambush points (split the 67% evenly between BTC and ETH):
BTC: staggered buy-in at 80,000 and 75,000.
ETH: staggered buy-in at 2,700 and 2,400.

Reminder:
The market has entered a "complex stage," where simple bullish or bearish views will be proven wrong. The real opportunity belongs to those who still hold cash during market panic and dare to pull the trigger at key levels. Patience and discipline are more important than any technical analysis. Forget previous "main surge" expectations; focus on survival and hunting rules in the current "oscillation market."

Stay vigilant, protect your principal, and wait for the market to give a clearer signal. #美联储降息 #广场发帖领$50 #十二月行情展望 #比特币行情观察 #加密市场观察