【2025/12/11】 $BTC $ETH Market Analysis

Last night’s script replayed itself: The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut, Powell's speech was dovish, the market initially celebrated and surged higher, then a large bearish candle dropped, trapping all the late buyers. What does this indicate? It shows that the current market is extremely fragile; any positive news to push it higher is just a “trap to induce longs,” creating a better position for bears to smash down.

This is the third rate cut this year, and the market has become numb. The technicals all point to “bearish.” Daily candles are consecutive down, with lower highs, clearly indicating a downtrend; the hourly chart shows each rebound with long upper wicks, as if hitting an invisible ceiling, being hammered down hard; MACD is opening downward below the zero line, indicating strong bearish momentum; all moving averages are pressing down on the price from above.

This week’s strategy in one sentence: Don’t catch the bottom, don’t chase longs. All upward moves should first be regarded as “rebounds,” and look for opportunities to short high in line with the trend, as the market is telling us: once positive news is exhausted, it becomes negative.

Old K Bitcoin Trading Strategy:
Sell at 91500-90500, stop loss above 92500, target 88800-87800
Light long at 87900-88900, stop loss below 87000, target 90000-91000
Old K Ethereum Trading Strategy:
Sell at 3245-3195, stop loss above 3305, target 3095-3045
Buy at 3025-3065, stop loss below 2985, target 3145-3190