The gold market tonight is focused on the Federal Reserve decision: the key to the future market direction is not whether to cut interest rates, but how the future easing path will unfold.

If Powell signals a dovish stance—not only cutting rates by 25 basis points but also indicating continued policy easing—then the US dollar may weaken. As returns on deposits, bonds, and other assets decline, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases significantly, and capital may flow into the gold market, pushing gold prices to challenge the new high of $4,250.

Conversely, if there is a "hawkish rate cut"—implementing a rate cut but emphasizing that inflation risks remain and future rate hikes may be paused—the market might see a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario. Previously priced-in positive news could reverse into selling pressure, with longs taking profits or exiting, potentially causing gold prices to retrace, with the $4,100 level facing testing.

The core issue is whether the Fed's "interest rate cut roadmap" is sufficiently accommodative. Even if it aligns with market expectations, a lack of additional surprises should still prompt caution about profit-taking and adjustment risks.