Bitcoin surged violently overnight, shooting straight back up to $92,000! As people watch their account numbers fluctuate, many are starting to hesitate: Is this a real breakout or just a bull trap?

Let’s first look at what’s happening off the charts. Vanguard, the world’s second-largest asset management giant, suddenly opened up Bitcoin ETF trading to 8 million clients. Keep in mind, this institution is known for its conservative approach—their entry signals that traditional capital is changing its attitude. More importantly, Trump recently hinted at appointing a crypto-friendly figure as the Federal Reserve Chair, and market expectations for rate cuts are heating up. While the Fed’s official announcement to end quantitative tightening will take time to filter through, the expectations themselves are already having an impact.

On the macro level, conditions are indeed improving, but technical signals are a bit more nuanced.

The 1-hour candlestick chart shows that while the MACD is still above the zero line, the white and yellow lines are starting to cross downward—usually a sign that short-term momentum is waning. However, trading volume has indeed increased, indicating that this rally is real and driven by actual capital.

There are a few key price levels to watch: On the upside, 94,601 is the first hurdle and will likely be tested; but there’s significant resistance around 97,226, where both historical bag holders and profit-takers are clustered. For downside support, 90,034 is the intraday level to defend—if it’s truly broken, there could be a pullback to 87,461.

In the short term, momentum could carry the price up for another day or two, with a good chance of touching 94,601. But to break through 97,226 in one go? That’s no easy feat. The market needs time to digest and more definitive signals.