The technicals for SOL are looking pretty shaky. On the weekly chart, that head-and-shoulders pattern is becoming increasingly obvious. After soaring over tenfold since 2023, it's starting to show signs of exhaustion.

The top was already in when last year’s ETF didn’t get approved, and even after this year’s ETF launch, there wasn’t much of a reaction—the price couldn’t even double. Compared to ETH’s run back in the day, SOL probably needs a deep correction first—something like a 50% drawdown washout—before it can try to replicate that kind of rally.

To put it simply, there’s too much weight on the market now. Staking rates and borrowing leverage are piled up too high, everyone’s locking up their tokens hoping for easy gains, and there’s a lack of liquidity. Who’s left to push the price up? Unless this structural issue gets cleaned up, it’ll be hard for new money to come in and take over. With both technical correction and supply structure problems, the market might keep grinding sideways for a while in the short term.