BTC plunged from over 90,000 to 85,000—can you guess who's really behind it?

Don’t blame those so-called meetings—the real trigger was in Japan. The yield on Japan’s 10-year government bonds quietly climbed to 1.1%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis. Sounds like no big deal? But insiders know this means the world’s largest "free money pool" is about to shut its doors.

For the past decade-plus, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates at zero. Institutions frantically borrowed low-cost yen, swapped it for dollars to buy US Treasuries and tech stocks, and threw in some BTC for good measure. This play is known as the yen carry trade—borrowing costs next to nothing, profits are huge, and even losses don’t really hurt. Crypto markets? Just a small player in this bigger chain.

Now, the tables have turned: Japanese inflation is surging, and expectations for rate hikes are heating up.

Here comes the chain reaction:

• Arbitrage costs are soaring, squeezing profit margins
• Yen appreciation means it takes more dollars to buy back yen when repaying loans
• Institutions are panic-selling assets to raise cash—US stocks, gold, BTC, all taking a hit

BTC is tanking the hardest not because of technical breakdowns, but because it’s the most liquid and easiest to cash out.

Stop fixating on Fed rate cuts—those are just band-aids on the wound. A rate hike in Japan is the real move that pulls the plug! If the Fed cuts rates while Japan hikes, that one-two punch could blow up your positions.

Two key dates:
✔ December 10: Fed rate decision
✔ December 19: Bank of Japan policy meeting

Don’t rush to buy the dip or chase rallies in the short term. Real trading pros spend 90% of their time on the sidelines, waiting for clear opportunities before making a move. The market is dancing on a knife’s edge—we all need to stay cautious.