Recently, I noticed an interesting signal—did you see the candlestick on December 3? As soon as the news about the end of Fed deflation came out, $BTC immediately surged with a big bullish candle, completely engulfing the bearish one from the previous day. This "bullish engulfing" pattern basically means: a short-term bottom might be in, and a rebound could be coming.



But don’t get too excited yet. The MA250 on the 4-hour chart is still trending downward. You know how it is when bouncing below the moving average—it’s not going to shoot straight up in one go. Most likely, it’ll grind its way up with some fluctuations.

As for trading? Contract traders can do the opposite—try going long near support levels and flip short at resistance. Spot holders can just stay put and hold; no need to overtrade.

There are two key time points to watch this week: on Tuesday, the US 10-year Treasury auction will reveal the market’s real expectations for rate cuts; then there’s the final decision from the FOMC meeting. These two events will basically set the tone for what’s next.
BTC-2.29%
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PumpStrategistvip
· 8h ago
The thing about Yang Bao Yin, those who have experienced several market cycles understand it. Don't be fooled by appearances. MA250 is still trending downward. Look at this—what do you call this rebound? At most, it's a short-lived bounce after retail investors cut losses and try to buy back in. It still has to be shaken out further. That day with the 10-year government bond was truly the true test. Don't follow the herd and chase highs then.
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DiamondHandsvip
· 12h ago
Is it just a matter of bullish on the upside and bearish on the downside? I think it's uncertain; the MA250 still needs to be suppressed. This week, with the release of government bonds and interest rate decisions, there will probably be another round of chaotic trading, and we'll have to wait and see how the Federal Reserve reacts. You can't play with futures; just pretend not to see the spot market. Continuing to stay flat is the best option.
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BoredStakervip
· 12-11 11:43
Bullish divergence is indeed tempting, but I still think this rebound can't be fully satisfied. Let's wait and see first.
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DEXRobinHoodvip
· 12-09 18:52
This bullish engulfing move is indeed fierce, but the MA250 hasn't turned yet. I'll just keep holding my spot positions.
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GamefiEscapeArtistvip
· 12-09 18:50
Bullish engulfing, huh? Same old rhetoric. How did the last person who said this turn out? I like the idea of just holding spot, but my hands are itching, haha. The MA250 is still trending down, so this rebound doesn’t look promising either. I’ll wait and see. Gotta keep an eye on the day government bonds are issued—that’s the real watershed moment.
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RegenRestorervip
· 12-09 18:47
I've heard the saying "bullish engulfing pattern" too many times—if it were really that simple, no one would be losing money anymore. I agree with the idea of just holding spot positions, but the derivatives side is way too risky.
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LiquidityHuntervip
· 12-09 18:46
The liquidity gap on the December 3rd candlestick is interesting; slippage data shows there’s a clear lack of depth in the trading pair. The MA250 is still trending downward—how can you arbitrage this price spread? Easier said than done. The key is to monitor liquidity changes in the trading pair before and after the 10-year treasury bond issuance. Abnormal fluctuations are where the opportunities lie.
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UnruggableChadvip
· 12-09 18:38
I've seen this bullish engulfing pattern too many times. Every time people say it's the bottom, but what happens in the end? The moving average is still trending down. It's hard to say how far this rebound can go. The real test will be on the day of the government bond data. If the data doesn't look good, it could break right through the support level.
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