12.9 Gold Asian Session Strategy Analysis: Cautious Consolidation Before the Meeting, Key Ranges Determine Direction

I. Core Market Logic: Waiting for Fed Guidance, Cautious Sentiment Dominates

On Monday, gold prices experienced a technical pullback during the Asian session, mainly due to the market being in the “Fed meeting blackout period.” As this week’s crucial rate decision and policy path signals are about to be released, trading sentiment is highly cautious, with most participants choosing to lock in some profits and reduce new positions to avoid uncertainty risk. This has led to a lack of upward momentum for gold, resulting in sideways consolidation.

In external markets, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuated within the 98.79-99.07 range, showing no clear direction and providing limited guidance for gold. However, it is important to note that the US 10-year Treasury yield remains strong, rising to 4.18% (a new high since the end of September). The rise in real yields has exerted clear downward pressure on gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, limiting its short-term upside.

Overall, after last week’s surge and consolidation, gold remains in a medium-term uptrend structure. However, the dual pressures of “bond yield suppression” and “policy uncertainty” are significantly increasing short-term volatility risk. Before key events, the market may continue to fluctuate, repeatedly testing critical support/resistance levels.

II. Technical Structure Analysis: Trend Intact but Momentum Weakening, Entering Key Range Battle

The current market shows the technical feature of “trend unbroken, but upward momentum continuously weakening.” Gold prices have formed a clear tug-of-war at high levels, and the probability of short-term consolidation has significantly increased. The break of the bull-bear balance will depend on the gain or loss of key support and resistance ranges.

Core Bull-Bear Divider (Key Support Zone): $4,175-$4,200

This range is the recent area of heavy trading and pullback lows, with a large accumulation of short-term positions. If this is effectively broken (especially confirmed by a daily close), it would indicate damage to the short-term uptrend structure and could trigger a deeper technical pullback.

Two Lower-Level Supports:

1. $4,100: The key starting point of the current rally and a strong psychological support level.

2. $4,150-$4,170: The extension support area of the short-term uptrend line, a crucial defense line for bulls.

Upper Resistance and Breakout Space (Key Resistance Zone): $4,220-$4,270

This range is the starting area of the previous decline and has become a strong resistance zone that has been tested multiple times but not held. Gold prices need to effectively break and hold this range to open up more upside, potentially challenging historical highs.

The primary intraday resistance is at $4,220-$4,240, which is also near Monday’s high.

III. Asian Session Strategy Recommendations: Sell High, Buy Low Within Range, Follow Breakouts

Before the FOMC meeting results are announced, it is recommended to focus on range trading within key zones, strictly control position sizes, and be ready to follow breakouts at critical levels.

1. Long Opportunities:

Ideal Entry Area: $4,170-$4,180. Wait for gold to pull back into this area and observe for stabilization signals (such as lower shadows, short-term K-line reversal patterns).

Risk Control: Set stop loss below $4,150 to guard against trendline break risk.

Target: $4,220-$4,240. If there is a strong breakout, further target the $4,260-$4,270 resistance area.

2. Short Opportunities:

Ideal Entry Area: $4,230-$4,240. Wait for gold to rebound into this resistance area and look for signs of stalling.

Risk Control: Set stop loss above $4,270 to guard against range breakout risk.

Target: $4,200-$4,190. If broken, further target the strong support zone at $4,175-$4,170.

Summary:

The current market is in a “cautious mode ahead of event-driven catalysts.” During the Asian session, gold is likely to remain in the core $4,170-$4,240 range. In trading, a “sell high, buy low within the range, cautiously follow after key breakout” strategy is recommended. Keep positions light, use strict stop losses, and control risk before the event, waiting for the Fed decision to provide clear directional guidance.