#美联储降息预期 According to the latest market survey from Reuters, the S&P 500 index has an optimistic outlook for its future trend. Data shows that by the end of 2026, the index is expected to reach 7,490 points, up about 12% from current levels. This reflects the market's positive expectations for the US economy, tech stock performance, and Federal Reserve policy.

However, there are still short-term correction risks. More than half of the respondents believe a correction could occur within the next three months. This reminds us to closely monitor inflation data and changes in expectations for Fed rate cuts, as these may become key factors in breaking the current optimism.

From a capital flow perspective, if the S&P 500 does maintain its upward momentum, it could attract more capital into the US stock market. This may create some crowding-out effect on risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. It is advisable to track institutional capital flows between traditional finance and the crypto market to assess changes in risk appetite.

Overall, while the long-term outlook is optimistic, short-term volatility risks should not be ignored. I will continue to monitor on-chain data changes to look for leading signals of capital flows.